At times it seems like you are comparing traditional CBA justifications for government work on existential risk vs longtermist justifications. At other times it seems like you are comparing the policy prescriptions and funding that would pass a traditional CBA vs the policy prescriptions and funding that would come out of strong longtermist reasoning (deliberately setting aside political feasibility). I have different views on each of these comparisons.
On the first, I think we should use both traditional CBA justifications as well as longtermist considerations and don’t think the piece really offers much argument against including the latter at all (for one thing, it doesn’t seem to recognise that they can actually be popular and motivating with the public and with policy makers in a way that CBA isn’t, widening the feasibility window).
On the second, I agree that we should generally not use strong longtermist justifications (though the piece usually frames itself as arguing against regular longtermist justifications). For one thing, I don’t actually endorse strong longtermism anyway. I also agree that we shouldn’t set aside political feasibility in our policy recommendations. But it seems something of a straw man to suggest that the choice under discussion is to ignore effects on future generations or to consider all such effects on a total utilitarian basis and ignore the political feasibility. Are there any serious advocates of that position? The inadequacy of the second of these options doesn’t really help you conclude that we should deliberately restrict ourselves to the CBA option, as there are so many other options that were not considered.
On the first, I think we should use both traditional CBA justifications as well as longtermist considerations
I agree with this. What we’re arguing for is a criterion: governments should fund all those catastrophe-preventing interventions that clear the bar set by cost-benefit analysis and altruistic willingness to pay. One justification for funding these interventions is the justification provided by CBA itself, but it need not be the only one. If longtermist justifications help us get to the place where all the catastrophe-preventing interventions that clear the CBA-plus-AWTP bar are funded, then there’s a case for employing those justifications too.
But it seems something of a straw man to suggest that the choice under discussion is to ignore effects on future generations or to consider all such effects on a total utilitarian basis and ignore the political feasibility. Are there any serious advocates of that position?
We think that longtermists in the political sphere should (as far as they can) commit themselves to only pushing for policies that can be justified on CBA-plus-AWTP grounds (which need not entirely ignore effects on future generations). We think that, in the absence of such a commitment, the present generation may worry that longtermists would go too far. From the paper:
Longtermists can try to increase government funding for catastrophe-prevention by making longtermist arguments and thereby increasing citizens’ AWTP, but they should not urge governments to depart from a CBA-plus-AWTP catastrophe policy. On the contrary, longtermists should as far as possible commit themselves to acting in accordance with a CBA-plus-AWTP policy in the political sphere. One reason why is simple: longtermists have moral reasons to respect the preferences of their fellow citizens.
To see another reason why, note first that longtermists working to improve government catastrophe policy could be a win-win. The present generation benefits because longtermists solve the collective action problem: they work to implement interventions that cost-effectively reduce everyone’s risk of dying in a catastrophe. Future generations benefit because these interventions also reduce existential risk. But as it stands the present generation may worry that longtermists would go too far. If granted imperfectly accountable power, longtermists might try to use the machinery of government to place burdens on the present generation for the sake of further benefits to future generations. These worries may lead to the marginalisation of longtermism, and thus an outcome that is worse for both present and future generations.
The best solution is compromise and commitment.[39] A CBA-plus-AWTP policy – founded as it is on citizens’ preferences – is acceptable to a broad coalition of people. As a result, longtermists committing to act in accordance with a CBA-plus-AWTP policy makes possible an arrangement that is significantly better than the status quo, both by longtermist lights and by the lights of the present generation. It also gives rise to other benefits of cooperation. For example, it helps to avoid needless conflicts in which groups lobby for opposing policies, with some substantial portion of the resources that they spend cancelling each other out (see Ord 2015: 120–21, 135). With a CBA-plus-AWTP policy in place, those resources can instead be spent on interventions that are appealing to all sides.
The target of your comparisons:
At times it seems like you are comparing traditional CBA justifications for government work on existential risk vs longtermist justifications. At other times it seems like you are comparing the policy prescriptions and funding that would pass a traditional CBA vs the policy prescriptions and funding that would come out of strong longtermist reasoning (deliberately setting aside political feasibility). I have different views on each of these comparisons.
On the first, I think we should use both traditional CBA justifications as well as longtermist considerations and don’t think the piece really offers much argument against including the latter at all (for one thing, it doesn’t seem to recognise that they can actually be popular and motivating with the public and with policy makers in a way that CBA isn’t, widening the feasibility window).
On the second, I agree that we should generally not use strong longtermist justifications (though the piece usually frames itself as arguing against regular longtermist justifications). For one thing, I don’t actually endorse strong longtermism anyway. I also agree that we shouldn’t set aside political feasibility in our policy recommendations. But it seems something of a straw man to suggest that the choice under discussion is to ignore effects on future generations or to consider all such effects on a total utilitarian basis and ignore the political feasibility. Are there any serious advocates of that position? The inadequacy of the second of these options doesn’t really help you conclude that we should deliberately restrict ourselves to the CBA option, as there are so many other options that were not considered.
I agree with this. What we’re arguing for is a criterion: governments should fund all those catastrophe-preventing interventions that clear the bar set by cost-benefit analysis and altruistic willingness to pay. One justification for funding these interventions is the justification provided by CBA itself, but it need not be the only one. If longtermist justifications help us get to the place where all the catastrophe-preventing interventions that clear the CBA-plus-AWTP bar are funded, then there’s a case for employing those justifications too.
We think that longtermists in the political sphere should (as far as they can) commit themselves to only pushing for policies that can be justified on CBA-plus-AWTP grounds (which need not entirely ignore effects on future generations). We think that, in the absence of such a commitment, the present generation may worry that longtermists would go too far. From the paper: