This is very much an aside, but I would be really curious how many people you perceive as having changed their views to longtermism would actually agree with this. (According to David’s analysis, it is probably a decent amount.)
E.g. I’m wondering whether I would count in this category. From the outside I might have looked like I changed my views towards longtermism, while from the inside I would describe my views as pretty agnostic, but I prioritised community preferences over my own. There might also be some people who felt like they had to appear to have or act on longtermist views to not lose access to the community.
Some may also have started off longtermist without that being obvious—I knew I was a total utilitarian and cared about the long run future from ~2009, but didn’t feel like I knew how to act on that until much later. So I guess from the outside my views may look like they changed over the last couple of years in a way they didn’t.
This is very much an aside, but I would be really curious how many people you perceive as having changed their views to longtermism would actually agree with this. (According to David’s analysis, it is probably a decent amount.)
E.g. I’m wondering whether I would count in this category. From the outside I might have looked like I changed my views towards longtermism, while from the inside I would describe my views as pretty agnostic, but I prioritised community preferences over my own. There might also be some people who felt like they had to appear to have or act on longtermist views to not lose access to the community.
Some may also have started off longtermist without that being obvious—I knew I was a total utilitarian and cared about the long run future from ~2009, but didn’t feel like I knew how to act on that until much later. So I guess from the outside my views may look like they changed over the last couple of years in a way they didn’t.
Yeah, I think this is worth taking seriously. (FWIW, I think I had been mostly (though perhaps not completely) aware that you are agnostic.)