The PrecipiceāToby Ord (Chapter 5 has a section on Dystopian Scenarios)
The Totalitarian ThreatāBryan Caplan (if that link stops working, a link to a Word doc version can be found on this page) (some related discussion on the 80k podcast here; use the āfindā function)
A shift in arguments for AI riskāTom Sittler (this has a brief but valuable section on robust totalitarianism) (discussion of the overall piece here)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global PriorityāNick Bostrom (this discusses the concepts of āpermanent stagnationā and āflawed realisationā, and very briefly touches on their relevance to e.g. lasting totalitarianism)
The Future of Human EvolutionāBostrom, 2009 (I think some scenarios covered there might count as dystopias, depending on definitions)
Collection of sources related to dystopias and ārobust totalitarianismā
(See also Books on authoritarianism, Russia, China, NK, democratic backsliding, etc.?)
The PrecipiceāToby Ord (Chapter 5 has a section on Dystopian Scenarios)
The Totalitarian ThreatāBryan Caplan (if that link stops working, a link to a Word doc version can be found on this page) (some related discussion on the 80k podcast here; use the āfindā function)
Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actorsāDavid Althaus and Tobias Baumann, 2020
The Centre for the Governance of AIās research agendaāAllan Dafoe (this contains discussion of ārobust totalitarianismā, and related matters)
A shift in arguments for AI riskāTom Sittler (this has a brief but valuable section on robust totalitarianism) (discussion of the overall piece here)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global PriorityāNick Bostrom (this discusses the concepts of āpermanent stagnationā and āflawed realisationā, and very briefly touches on their relevance to e.g. lasting totalitarianism)
The Future of Human EvolutionāBostrom, 2009 (I think some scenarios covered there might count as dystopias, depending on definitions)
The Vulnerable World HypothesisāBostrom, 2019
80,000 Hours interview with Tyler Cowen ā 2018
Various works of fiction, most notably Orwellās 1984
Some sources on dictatorships/ātotalitarianism in general (without a focus on long-term future consequences)
Dikƶtter, F. (2019). How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Glad, B. (2002). Why tyrants go too far: Malignant narcissism and absolute power. Political Psychology, 23(1), 1-2.*
Chang, J., & Halliday, J. (2007). Mao: The unknown story. Vintage.*
*Asterisks indicate I havenāt read that source myself, and thus that the source might not actually be a good fit for this list.
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.