The Precipice—Toby Ord (Chapter 5 has a section on Dystopian Scenarios)
The Totalitarian Threat—Bryan Caplan (if that link stops working, a link to a Word doc version can be found on this page) (some related discussion on the 80k podcast here; use the “find” function)
A shift in arguments for AI risk—Tom Sittler (this has a brief but valuable section on robust totalitarianism) (discussion of the overall piece here)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority—Nick Bostrom (this discusses the concepts of “permanent stagnation” and “flawed realisation”, and very briefly touches on their relevance to e.g. lasting totalitarianism)
The Future of Human Evolution—Bostrom, 2009 (I think some scenarios covered there might count as dystopias, depending on definitions)
Collection of sources related to dystopias and “robust totalitarianism”
(See also Books on authoritarianism, Russia, China, NK, democratic backsliding, etc.?)
The Precipice—Toby Ord (Chapter 5 has a section on Dystopian Scenarios)
The Totalitarian Threat—Bryan Caplan (if that link stops working, a link to a Word doc version can be found on this page) (some related discussion on the 80k podcast here; use the “find” function)
Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors—David Althaus and Tobias Baumann, 2020
The Centre for the Governance of AI’s research agenda—Allan Dafoe (this contains discussion of “robust totalitarianism”, and related matters)
A shift in arguments for AI risk—Tom Sittler (this has a brief but valuable section on robust totalitarianism) (discussion of the overall piece here)
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority—Nick Bostrom (this discusses the concepts of “permanent stagnation” and “flawed realisation”, and very briefly touches on their relevance to e.g. lasting totalitarianism)
The Future of Human Evolution—Bostrom, 2009 (I think some scenarios covered there might count as dystopias, depending on definitions)
The Vulnerable World Hypothesis—Bostrom, 2019
80,000 Hours interview with Tyler Cowen − 2018
Various works of fiction, most notably Orwell’s 1984
Some sources on dictatorships/totalitarianism in general (without a focus on long-term future consequences)
Dikötter, F. (2019). How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Glad, B. (2002). Why tyrants go too far: Malignant narcissism and absolute power. Political Psychology, 23(1), 1-2.*
Chang, J., & Halliday, J. (2007). Mao: The unknown story. Vintage.*
*Asterisks indicate I haven’t read that source myself, and thus that the source might not actually be a good fit for this list.
I intend to add to this list over time. If you know of other relevant work, please mention it in a comment.