What would you recommend to handle cluelessness and unawareness about the far future and acausal influence, where contact and feedback may not be very practical or sufficiently informative? Maybe with the far future, we should just be extremely patient, possibly over 1000 years or more, and wait for that feedback anyway, but during that time, lots of confounders and clueless-making events could come up.
Or we simulate things in a lot of detail to try to get that feedback artificially, although that may mean simulating and realizing a lot of suffering.
I think making predictions (and learning how they go) for the short & medium term future will help us be much more calibrated on our predictions for the long-term future. So all the work on prediction markets etc probably give us better insight there.
I’m not sold on some sort of Great Reflection style pause, but it also doesn’t seem like a crazy idea.
I frankly have not thought hard about how acausal influence changes how we should act. I don’t have good recommendations. Being kind & having a wide circle of empathy feels pretty robustly good, but I won’t pretend to have justified that from the lens of acausal negotiations.
What would you recommend to handle cluelessness and unawareness about the far future and acausal influence, where contact and feedback may not be very practical or sufficiently informative? Maybe with the far future, we should just be extremely patient, possibly over 1000 years or more, and wait for that feedback anyway, but during that time, lots of confounders and clueless-making events could come up.
Or we simulate things in a lot of detail to try to get that feedback artificially, although that may mean simulating and realizing a lot of suffering.
I think making predictions (and learning how they go) for the short & medium term future will help us be much more calibrated on our predictions for the long-term future. So all the work on prediction markets etc probably give us better insight there.
I’m not sold on some sort of Great Reflection style pause, but it also doesn’t seem like a crazy idea.
I frankly have not thought hard about how acausal influence changes how we should act. I don’t have good recommendations. Being kind & having a wide circle of empathy feels pretty robustly good, but I won’t pretend to have justified that from the lens of acausal negotiations.