Illusion of truth effect and Ambiguity effect: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks

[Remmelt]

Illusion of truth effect

People are more likely to identify as true statements they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them before), regardless of the actual validity of the statement.

In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.

When combined with the bandwagon effect and/​or the mere exposure effect, tends to lead to incorrect conclusions.

- link Wikipedia: Illusion of truth effect
- an item on Forrest Landry’s compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.

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Ambiguity effect

The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem “unknown”.

- link Wikipedia: Ambiguity effect
- an item on Forrest Landry’s compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.

[Remmelt]

Say maybe Illusion of Truth and Ambiguity Effect each are biasing how researchers in AI Safety evaluate one option below.

If you had to choose, which bias would more likely apply to which option?

• A: Aligning AGI to be safe over the long term is possible in principle.

• B: Long-term safe AGI is impossible fundamentally.