Es­ti­ma­tion of ex­is­ten­tial risk

TagLast edit: 14 Jun 2021 14:41 UTC by Pablo


Beard, Simon, Thomas Rowe & James Fox (2020) An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards, Futures, vol. 115, pp. 1–14.

Besiroglu, Tamay (2019) Ragnarök Series — results so far, Metaculus, October 15.

Goth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) Dr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for “work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021.”

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008) Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, Technical Report #2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford.

Tonn, Bruce & Dorian Stiefel (2013) Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks, Risk Analysis, vol. 33, pp. 1772–1787.

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