Thanks for this! I think there should be a lot more introduction material to effective altruism, and this is a great step.
One stat I’d nitpick: I think GiveWell and other charity effectiveness estimators would pretty strongly disagree with the statement that someone can save a life with $586.
First, $586 is on the very low end of GiveWell’s estimates for the cost of saving a life. From their website: “As of November 2016, the median estimate of our top charities’ cost-effectiveness ranged from ~$900 to ~$7,000 per equivalent life saved.”
Second, that’s not literally saying $ per life saved, it’s saying $ per “equivalent life saved”. GiveWell does moral weight conversions, meaning e.g. if an intervention increases consumption by 25% for 100 people for one year, using their moral weight system, that would be equivalent to saving 0.685 lives. It’s tough to make conversions like that, but it’s essential in a world with unavoidable tradeoffs—but we should be transparent about when we’re doing these conversions. (I’m actually not sure if this is an important factor in the fistula case, more just a general warning.)
Third, GiveWell seems to strongly believe that “we can’t take expected value estimates literally, even when they’re unbiased”, because experience shows that exceptionally effective charities are simply rare. An example: if a high school physics student collects some experimental data that disproves F=ma, do you believe him? No, because this new evidence is much weaker than our prior belief. Similarly, if a new charity comes out with an estimate that says it can save a life for $1, do we believe it? Probably not—not because the study was flawed or biased or malicious or anything like that, but because there’s way better odds the study was somehow wrong than there are that they can actually saves lives for $1.
One of the toughest parts about intros to EA is dealing with numbers like these. It’s been debated with Giving What We Can and Will MacAskill’s Doing Good Better. It’s tempting and effective to give a jarring headline like “This campaign saved #x lives today”, but all in all, I think it’s the right move not to oversell and to be honest about our uncertainty.
Aidan thank you so so much. It means a lot to hear back in detail like this from any EA people. I’m mostly out of any kind of direct contact with EA’s (aside from reading articles/videos) so it’s awesome to have any kind of conversation. Thank you for helping to expand my knowledge. I understand better how this is all estimated now, and the more I learn about GiveWell the more respect I have for them. Wow. It’s intense to come up with conversions like what they are doing.
I did struggle a bit with the $586 number and how I phrased it:
1. I am aware that this is not enough to literally “save a life,” as in from death. But, it is a life saved, as in the woman’s life is suddenly saved from her physically, mentally, and socially injured life.
2. I am aware that although the $586 IS the average cost of a fistula surgery (at least according to the organization, but they are also vetted by The Life You Can Save and a bunch of others), there are overhead costs that may or may not be included in that number.
That being said, I did still stick to run with the $586 since it is the actual cost of the procedure and after-care, etc… and since if that woman did have that money and was near enough to the doctor, that WOULD be enough to “save her life.” (Of course I also have to admit, that I do also like the jarring headline aspect.)
If you have any additional thoughts, def let me know. If not, thank you again!!!
If you would like to talk with more EAs, there is (was?) a program where you would get the contact info of a new EA every month and then you could set up phone/VOIP call with them. I didn’t find the program easily online when I just searched, but I’m pretty sure someone else on the forum would have the info.
Thanks for this! I think there should be a lot more introduction material to effective altruism, and this is a great step.
One stat I’d nitpick: I think GiveWell and other charity effectiveness estimators would pretty strongly disagree with the statement that someone can save a life with $586.
First, $586 is on the very low end of GiveWell’s estimates for the cost of saving a life. From their website: “As of November 2016, the median estimate of our top charities’ cost-effectiveness ranged from ~$900 to ~$7,000 per equivalent life saved.”
Second, that’s not literally saying $ per life saved, it’s saying $ per “equivalent life saved”. GiveWell does moral weight conversions, meaning e.g. if an intervention increases consumption by 25% for 100 people for one year, using their moral weight system, that would be equivalent to saving 0.685 lives. It’s tough to make conversions like that, but it’s essential in a world with unavoidable tradeoffs—but we should be transparent about when we’re doing these conversions. (I’m actually not sure if this is an important factor in the fistula case, more just a general warning.)
Third, GiveWell seems to strongly believe that “we can’t take expected value estimates literally, even when they’re unbiased”, because experience shows that exceptionally effective charities are simply rare. An example: if a high school physics student collects some experimental data that disproves F=ma, do you believe him? No, because this new evidence is much weaker than our prior belief. Similarly, if a new charity comes out with an estimate that says it can save a life for $1, do we believe it? Probably not—not because the study was flawed or biased or malicious or anything like that, but because there’s way better odds the study was somehow wrong than there are that they can actually saves lives for $1.
One of the toughest parts about intros to EA is dealing with numbers like these. It’s been debated with Giving What We Can and Will MacAskill’s Doing Good Better. It’s tempting and effective to give a jarring headline like “This campaign saved #x lives today”, but all in all, I think it’s the right move not to oversell and to be honest about our uncertainty.
(But seriously, really cool project)
Aidan thank you so so much. It means a lot to hear back in detail like this from any EA people. I’m mostly out of any kind of direct contact with EA’s (aside from reading articles/videos) so it’s awesome to have any kind of conversation. Thank you for helping to expand my knowledge. I understand better how this is all estimated now, and the more I learn about GiveWell the more respect I have for them. Wow. It’s intense to come up with conversions like what they are doing.
I did struggle a bit with the $586 number and how I phrased it:
1. I am aware that this is not enough to literally “save a life,” as in from death. But, it is a life saved, as in the woman’s life is suddenly saved from her physically, mentally, and socially injured life.
2. I am aware that although the $586 IS the average cost of a fistula surgery (at least according to the organization, but they are also vetted by The Life You Can Save and a bunch of others), there are overhead costs that may or may not be included in that number.
That being said, I did still stick to run with the $586 since it is the actual cost of the procedure and after-care, etc… and since if that woman did have that money and was near enough to the doctor, that WOULD be enough to “save her life.” (Of course I also have to admit, that I do also like the jarring headline aspect.)
If you have any additional thoughts, def let me know. If not, thank you again!!!
If you would like to talk with more EAs, there is (was?) a program where you would get the contact info of a new EA every month and then you could set up phone/VOIP call with them. I didn’t find the program easily online when I just searched, but I’m pretty sure someone else on the forum would have the info.