That’s 9.5% of the kids they caused to be vaccinated, which already seems highish—GiveWell estimates about 1 in 10 of these kids would have died from a vaccine preventable illness before age 5 if not for the New Incentives program.
This seems very different from what they claim in their spreadsheet (300 under-5 deaths averted per 10,000 children counterfactually vaccinated, so 3%)
Do you have a sense of what’s driving the discrepancy?
Thanks Lorenzo—yes looking at that now I think that 3% is the estimate for the highest under 5 mortality Nigerian state as well, others are far less. They do assign 40% of the value of the program to preventing death in other ages + increased income effects as well + 0.75 lives saved for every vaccinated kid’s life saved, based on other life saving effects from vaccines (which I’m pretty dubious about) - but that doesn’t change the situation enough.
Also not sure if you have seen it, but near the top of this page is a great overall summary of their calculation, which makes a lot of sense to me and I struggle to see how it gets to that apparent 9.5% of lives saved that it seemed to me they were claiming..
Thanks for doing this check!
This seems very different from what they claim in their spreadsheet (300 under-5 deaths averted per 10,000 children counterfactually vaccinated, so 3%)
Do you have a sense of what’s driving the discrepancy?
Thanks Lorenzo—yes looking at that now I think that 3% is the estimate for the highest under 5 mortality Nigerian state as well, others are far less. They do assign 40% of the value of the program to preventing death in other ages + increased income effects as well + 0.75 lives saved for every vaccinated kid’s life saved, based on other life saving effects from vaccines (which I’m pretty dubious about) - but that doesn’t change the situation enough.
Also not sure if you have seen it, but near the top of this page is a great overall summary of their calculation, which makes a lot of sense to me and I struggle to see how it gets to that apparent 9.5% of lives saved that it seemed to me they were claiming..
https://​​www.givewell.org/​​international/​​technical/​​programs/​​new-incentives
I’m afraid I haven’t looked through the CEA in detail to figure that out so no I don’t have a sense!