However participation costs $2,500 a year (as well as a 5% commission on donations)
You’d only have to be 15% confident ($20K * 0.95 - $2.5K = $16.5K. $16.5K / $2.5K = 6.6. 1 / 6.6 = ~15%) you would achieve the average or more for it to be worth worth trying out, not accounting for the existence of better investment opportunities.
And you’d only have to raise $2.7K to more than break even, not accounting for time costs or better investment opportunities (X * 0.95 = $2.5K. $2.5K / 0.95 = $2632).
I agree with this. You might try raising money for this directly. I’d think if you put together a 1-2 page document outlining the giving opportunity with the potential benefits (including value of information!), there’s a fair chance that you could get money for it from people in this community.
“However participation costs $2,500 a year (as well as a 5% commission on donations). We feel that we do not have sufficient evidence to justify this expenditure. Among other things, Charity Science is not in a financial position to take punts which have a good chance of not paying off, even if in expectation they will have a large positive impact.”
feels like a shame to let a small financial barrier get in the way of a large positive impact...
If you did feel like there was a 7% or greater chance, I’d put in £100-£400 on this gamble if you were raising for amf and £100-£400 loss coverage if this was raising for charity science (I’d want a claim on the first £x equivalent to what I put in after recouperating costs) - but need to agree with my giving partner first.
You’d only have to be 15% confident ($20K * 0.95 - $2.5K = $16.5K. $16.5K / $2.5K = 6.6. 1 / 6.6 = ~15%) you would achieve the average or more for it to be worth worth trying out, not accounting for the existence of better investment opportunities.
And you’d only have to raise $2.7K to more than break even, not accounting for time costs or better investment opportunities (X * 0.95 = $2.5K. $2.5K / 0.95 = $2632).
Seems worth exploring a little bit more to me.
I agree with this. You might try raising money for this directly. I’d think if you put together a 1-2 page document outlining the giving opportunity with the potential benefits (including value of information!), there’s a fair chance that you could get money for it from people in this community.
As an update we’re going to do this, so thanks for the suggestion! It’d be great if anyone interested could comment or message me in the meantime.
That’s an interesting suggestion, thanks for that—we’ll consider it.
“However participation costs $2,500 a year (as well as a 5% commission on donations). We feel that we do not have sufficient evidence to justify this expenditure. Among other things, Charity Science is not in a financial position to take punts which have a good chance of not paying off, even if in expectation they will have a large positive impact.”
feels like a shame to let a small financial barrier get in the way of a large positive impact...
If you did feel like there was a 7% or greater chance, I’d put in £100-£400 on this gamble if you were raising for amf and £100-£400 loss coverage if this was raising for charity science (I’d want a claim on the first £x equivalent to what I put in after recouperating costs) - but need to agree with my giving partner first.
Hi Tom, we’d love to take you up on that as we’ve decided that there is sufficient chance!