Metaculus predictions are now featured in those surveys (yay!) so I was able to make a more direct comparison for the first survey where you can compare those predictions head-to-head.
tl;dr: Experts have broadly outperformed the Metaculus aggregative predictions, however the differences were not exceptionally large.
Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.
Metaculus predictions are now featured in those surveys (yay!) so I was able to make a more direct comparison for the first survey where you can compare those predictions head-to-head.
tl;dr: Experts have broadly outperformed the Metaculus aggregative predictions, however the differences were not exceptionally large.
UPDATE: With more data, Metaculus users have instead done better again.
Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.