UPDATE: With more data, Metaculus users have instead done better again.
Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.
UPDATE: With more data, Metaculus users have instead done better again.
Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.