I think there is something powerful about noticing who is winning and trying to figure out what the generators for their actions are.
On this specifically:
the most cost effective way a billionaire entrepreneur and major government contractor could get valuable ROI out of an easily-flattered president with overlapping interests was by buying Twitter
This is not how I see it. Buying Twitter and changing its norms was a surprisingly high-leverage intervention in a domain where turning money into power is notoriously difficult. One of the effects, but not the only one, was influencing the outcome of the 2024 US elections.
I think there’s something quite powerful about not going all in on a single data point and noting that Musk backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and when he did endorse the winning side in 2020 he spent most of the next year publicly complaining about the [predictable] COVID policy outcomes. The base rate for Musk specifically and politically-driven billionaires in general picking winners in elections isn’t better than pollsters, or even notably better than random chance.
Do you honestly believe that Harris (or Biden) would have won if Musk didn’t buy Twitter or spend so much time on it?
I think there is something powerful about noticing who is winning and trying to figure out what the generators for their actions are.
On this specifically:
This is not how I see it. Buying Twitter and changing its norms was a surprisingly high-leverage intervention in a domain where turning money into power is notoriously difficult. One of the effects, but not the only one, was influencing the outcome of the 2024 US elections.
I think there’s something quite powerful about not going all in on a single data point and noting that Musk backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and when he did endorse the winning side in 2020 he spent most of the next year publicly complaining about the [predictable] COVID policy outcomes. The base rate for Musk specifically and politically-driven billionaires in general picking winners in elections isn’t better than pollsters, or even notably better than random chance.
Do you honestly believe that Harris (or Biden) would have won if Musk didn’t buy Twitter or spend so much time on it?