Here is the executive summary and few sections for this week’s brief on global risks, by my team @ Sentinel.
Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.
Tech and AI: Meta’s policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”
And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
Geopolitics: Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Before the summit, forecasters estimated a 27% (15% to 40%) probability of a ceasefire by October 1. After the summit, our forecast dropped to a 9%probability (2% to 30%).
Before the summit, Zelensky told his European counterparts that he would be willing to formally cede territory that Russia already occupies in exchange for freezing the conflict along the current frontlines, while Putin was demanding that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the entirety of the Donbas in exchange for a freeze everywhere else (a demand Zelensky rejected). Trump also threatened “severe consequences” for Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t agreed, presumably in the form of more military aid to Ukraine and further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russia. Still, based on the failure of previous talks, our forecasts for the chance of a ceasefire were significantly below 50%, although the fact that Trump and Putin were meeting at all was setting high expectations (with Trump claiming a 75% chance that the summit would be successful).
After the summit, forecasters consistently reduced their estimates. Trump didn’t take the chance to exert pressure, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arguing that further sanctions would only prolong the war. Instead, Trump adopted Putin’s position of aiming for a comprehensive peace agreement, which would likely take much longer to achieve, as there are many issues to resolve. With Putin proposing a land swap (potentially slanted 10-to-1 in favour of Russia) that puts Russian soldiers on the Kyiv side of the extensive defensive lines Ukraine has built, some of our forecasters believe there is a big gulf between the two sides’ positions, a sentiment echoed by Rubio. Others think that withdrawal from the Donbas might be acceptable to Ukraine if there are robust security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal, most likely in the form of European boots on the ground in the country.
Here is the executive summary and few sections for this week’s brief on global risks, by my team @ Sentinel.
Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.
Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.
Tech and AI: Meta’s policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”
And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
Geopolitics: Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Before the summit, forecasters estimated a 27% (15% to 40%) probability of a ceasefire by October 1. After the summit, our forecast dropped to a 9% probability (2% to 30%).
Before the summit, Zelensky told his European counterparts that he would be willing to formally cede territory that Russia already occupies in exchange for freezing the conflict along the current frontlines, while Putin was demanding that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the entirety of the Donbas in exchange for a freeze everywhere else (a demand Zelensky rejected). Trump also threatened “severe consequences” for Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t agreed, presumably in the form of more military aid to Ukraine and further sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russia. Still, based on the failure of previous talks, our forecasts for the chance of a ceasefire were significantly below 50%, although the fact that Trump and Putin were meeting at all was setting high expectations (with Trump claiming a 75% chance that the summit would be successful).
After the summit, forecasters consistently reduced their estimates. Trump didn’t take the chance to exert pressure, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arguing that further sanctions would only prolong the war. Instead, Trump adopted Putin’s position of aiming for a comprehensive peace agreement, which would likely take much longer to achieve, as there are many issues to resolve. With Putin proposing a land swap (potentially slanted 10-to-1 in favour of Russia) that puts Russian soldiers on the Kyiv side of the extensive defensive lines Ukraine has built, some of our forecasters believe there is a big gulf between the two sides’ positions, a sentiment echoed by Rubio. Others think that withdrawal from the Donbas might be acceptable to Ukraine if there are robust security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal, most likely in the form of European boots on the ground in the country.
rest of the brief here.
France has locally acquired cases (so the mosquito already lives there) whereas the UK cases are all linked to travel, I think.