I think they were optimizing for a combination of concreteness (so there’s an exact story to point to, where the 2027 story is “things go roughly as they expected” whereas 2028 and 2031 were pricing in different types of individually unexpected delays[1]), and for memetic value.
Compare: My best estimate is that this project will take me 6 months. However, if you ask me to write it out step-by-step, it’d take me 4 months.The 6 months include buffers for various delays, some expected and some unexpected.
I think for project time estimations as part of a larger plan, the 6 month reply is more useful. But for someone following along on my thinking process, or a manager/collegue/direct report trying to help me optimize, the 4 month step-by-step report might be easier to follow along and/or more useful to critique or improve.
Isn’t then somewhere between 2028 and 2031 really “things go roughly as expected” and 2027 is “things go faster than expected if every AI improvement rolls out without roadblocks?” I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, a bit of timeline conservatism might be prudent. Not the biggest deal though I suppose
“I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, a bit of timeline conservatism might be prudent.”
I see and respect that position, but you can imagine someone saying the opposite: “I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, it’s probably prudent to warn people of significant risks that happens much sooner than people expect, even if you think it’s less than 50% likely to happen then.”
I think they were optimizing for a combination of concreteness (so there’s an exact story to point to, where the 2027 story is “things go roughly as they expected” whereas 2028 and 2031 were pricing in different types of individually unexpected delays[1]), and for memetic value.
Compare: My best estimate is that this project will take me 6 months. However, if you ask me to write it out step-by-step, it’d take me 4 months.The 6 months include buffers for various delays, some expected and some unexpected.
I think for project time estimations as part of a larger plan, the 6 month reply is more useful. But for someone following along on my thinking process, or a manager/collegue/direct report trying to help me optimize, the 4 month step-by-step report might be easier to follow along and/or more useful to critique or improve.
The concreteness is fine makes sense for sure
Isn’t then somewhere between 2028 and 2031 really “things go roughly as expected” and 2027 is “things go faster than expected if every AI improvement rolls out without roadblocks?” I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, a bit of timeline conservatism might be prudent. Not the biggest deal though I suppose
“I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, a bit of timeline conservatism might be prudent.”
I see and respect that position, but you can imagine someone saying the opposite: “I feel like if you’re going to put something out there in the public sphere as a leader in AI, it’s probably prudent to warn people of significant risks that happens much sooner than people expect, even if you think it’s less than 50% likely to happen then.”