E.g. Ajeya’s median estimate is 99% automation of fully-remote jobs in roughly 6-8 years, 5+ years earlier than her 2023 estimate.
This seems more extreme than the linked comment suggests? I can’t find anything in the comment justifying “99% automation of fully-remote jobs”.
Frankly I think we get ASI and everyone dies before we get anything like 99% automation of current remote jobs, due to bureaucratic inertia and slow adoption. Automation of AI research comes first on the jagged frontier. I don’t think Ajeya disagrees?
The comment that Ajeya is replying to is this one from Ryan, who says his timelines are roughly the geometric mean of Ajeya’s and Daniel’s original views in the post. That is sqrt(4*13) = 7.2 years from the time of the post, so roughly 6 years from now.
As Josh says, the timelines in the original post were answering the question “Median Estimate for when 99% of currently fully remote jobs will be automatable”.
So I think it was a fair summary of Ajeya’s comment.
This seems more extreme than the linked comment suggests? I can’t find anything in the comment justifying “99% automation of fully-remote jobs”.
Frankly I think we get ASI and everyone dies before we get anything like 99% automation of current remote jobs, due to bureaucratic inertia and slow adoption. Automation of AI research comes first on the jagged frontier. I don’t think Ajeya disagrees?
That’s my bad, I did say ‘automated’ and should have been ‘automatable’. Have now corrected to clarify
They were referring to this quote, from the linked post: “Median Estimate for when 99% of currently fully remote jobs will be automatable.”
Automatable doesn’t necessarily imply that the jobs are actually automated.
The comment that Ajeya is replying to is this one from Ryan, who says his timelines are roughly the geometric mean of Ajeya’s and Daniel’s original views in the post. That is sqrt(4*13) = 7.2 years from the time of the post, so roughly 6 years from now.
As Josh says, the timelines in the original post were answering the question “Median Estimate for when 99% of currently fully remote jobs will be automatable”.
So I think it was a fair summary of Ajeya’s comment.