The probability of an interval is the area under the graph!
It’s not obvious to me how to interpret this without specifying the units on the y axis (percentage points?), and when the x axis is logarithmic and in units of numbers of deaths. E.g., for the probability of superintelligent AI killing between 1 and 10 people, should I multiply ~2.5 (height along x axis) by ~10 (length along y axis) and get 25%? But then I’ll often be multiplying the height along the x axis by more than 100 and getting insane probabilities?
So at the moment I can make sense of which events are seen as more likely than other ones, but not the absolute likelihood they’re assigned.
I may be making some basic mistake. Also feel free to point me to a pre-written guide to interpreting Elicit graphs.
It’s not obvious to me how to interpret this without specifying the units on the y axis (percentage points?), and when the x axis is logarithmic and in units of numbers of deaths. E.g., for the probability of superintelligent AI killing between 1 and 10 people, should I multiply ~2.5 (height along x axis) by ~10 (length along y axis) and get 25%? But then I’ll often be multiplying the height along the x axis by more than 100 and getting insane probabilities?
So at the moment I can make sense of which events are seen as more likely than other ones, but not the absolute likelihood they’re assigned.
I may be making some basic mistake. Also feel free to point me to a pre-written guide to interpreting Elicit graphs.