Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearer—I posted here because I couldn’t think of a more appropriate thread, and I didn’t want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the “shortform” feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; it’s definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didn’t think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I haven’t thought much about information/attention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
I’ve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether they’d considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps they’ll do so, or perhaps they’ll decide not to for good reasons.
Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearer—I posted here because I couldn’t think of a more appropriate thread, and I didn’t want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the “shortform” feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; it’s definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didn’t think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I haven’t thought much about information/attention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
I’ve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether they’d considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps they’ll do so, or perhaps they’ll decide not to for good reasons.