For the benefit of other readers: These estimates are about the āTimeline until human-level AGIā. The post Pablo linked to describes the methodology behind the estimates.
I donāt think this really falls directly under the scope of the spreadsheet (in that this isnāt directly an estimate of the chance of a catastrophe), so I havenāt added it to the spreadsheet itself, but itās definitely relevant when considering x-risk/āGCR estimates.
Do you know if thereās a collection of AI timelines forecasts somewhere? Iād imagine there would be?
Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearerāI posted here because I couldnāt think of a more appropriate thread, and I didnāt want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the āshortformā feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; itās definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didnāt think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I havenāt thought much about information/āattention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
Iāve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether theyād considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps theyāll do so, or perhaps theyāll decide not to for good reasons.
Thanks for sharing this here.
For the benefit of other readers: These estimates are about the āTimeline until human-level AGIā. The post Pablo linked to describes the methodology behind the estimates.
I donāt think this really falls directly under the scope of the spreadsheet (in that this isnāt directly an estimate of the chance of a catastrophe), so I havenāt added it to the spreadsheet itself, but itās definitely relevant when considering x-risk/āGCR estimates.
Do you know if thereās a collection of AI timelines forecasts somewhere? Iād imagine there would be?
Yes, sorry, I should have made that clearerāI posted here because I couldnāt think of a more appropriate thread, and I didnāt want to create a separate post (though maybe I could have used the āshortformā feature).
AI Impacts has a bunch of posts on this topic. This one discusses what appears to be the largest dataset of such predictions in existence. This one lists several analyses of time to human-level AI. And this one provides an overview of all their writings on AI timelines.
I think sharing that link in a comment here made sense; itās definitely relevant in relation to this topic. I was just flagging that I didnāt think it made sense to add it to the spreadsheet itself.
But I think a similar spreadsheet to collect AI timelines estimates seems valuable (though I havenāt thought much about information/āattention hazards considerations in relation to that). So thanks for linking to that AI Impacts post.
Iāve now sent AI Impacts a message asking whether theyād considered making it easy for people to comment on that dataset with links to additional predictions. So perhaps theyāll do so, or perhaps theyāll decide not to for good reasons.