In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.
The median probability was 50%, in effect a coin flip.
Very fair identification of some sloppy wording by me there with “increasing”. Apologies, my main focus was on the relatively high risk. Though as you’ve noted the WSJ survey had a median probability of 50%, and Forbes (link below) notes the NY Fed recession probability indicator is at 56% (albeit decreased from its previous 66%) - an unusually accurate indicator. Assessments which should be making central banks and economic ministries a little nervous.
Even with some forecasters reducing their probabilities, the relative risk and high level of uncertainties underpinning them would suggest to me it’d be a good time to review plans to weather any downturn.
Say more?
From The Wall Street Journal:
Very fair identification of some sloppy wording by me there with “increasing”. Apologies, my main focus was on the relatively high risk. Though as you’ve noted the WSJ survey had a median probability of 50%, and Forbes (link below) notes the NY Fed recession probability indicator is at 56% (albeit decreased from its previous 66%) - an unusually accurate indicator. Assessments which should be making central banks and economic ministries a little nervous.
Even with some forecasters reducing their probabilities, the relative risk and high level of uncertainties underpinning them would suggest to me it’d be a good time to review plans to weather any downturn.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-a-recession-coming/
No worries. I don’t want to nitpick. The concern you’re raising sounds reasonable.