Very fair identification of some sloppy wording by me there with “increasing”. Apologies, my main focus was on the relatively high risk. Though as you’ve noted the WSJ survey had a median probability of 50%, and Forbes (link below) notes the NY Fed recession probability indicator is at 56% (albeit decreased from its previous 66%) - an unusually accurate indicator. Assessments which should be making central banks and economic ministries a little nervous.
Even with some forecasters reducing their probabilities, the relative risk and high level of uncertainties underpinning them would suggest to me it’d be a good time to review plans to weather any downturn.
Very fair identification of some sloppy wording by me there with “increasing”. Apologies, my main focus was on the relatively high risk. Though as you’ve noted the WSJ survey had a median probability of 50%, and Forbes (link below) notes the NY Fed recession probability indicator is at 56% (albeit decreased from its previous 66%) - an unusually accurate indicator. Assessments which should be making central banks and economic ministries a little nervous.
Even with some forecasters reducing their probabilities, the relative risk and high level of uncertainties underpinning them would suggest to me it’d be a good time to review plans to weather any downturn.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-a-recession-coming/
No worries. I don’t want to nitpick. The concern you’re raising sounds reasonable.