Thanks, this work is likely to inform my own work significantly! One question: Have you considered ranking/rating the various categories for risk based on Metaculus predictions? One thing that interests me a lot are the Metaculus questions of the form “Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to X?” These questions currently sum to 150% which makes me think there is overlap between especially AI and nuclear, as well as AI and bio—both categories you have identified. Would you have any idea of how to infer the risks of bio or nuclear from the Metaculus questions? I think it might perhaps also strengthen your work, as you can rank/rate the different categories at least in terms of causing large scale loss of life.
Ranking the risks is outside the scope of our work.
Interpreting the metaculus questions sounds interesting, though it is not obvious how to disentangle the scenarios that forecasters had in mind. I think the Forecasting Research Institute is doing some related work, surveying forecasters on different risks.
Thanks, this work is likely to inform my own work significantly! One question: Have you considered ranking/rating the various categories for risk based on Metaculus predictions? One thing that interests me a lot are the Metaculus questions of the form “Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to X?” These questions currently sum to 150% which makes me think there is overlap between especially AI and nuclear, as well as AI and bio—both categories you have identified. Would you have any idea of how to infer the risks of bio or nuclear from the Metaculus questions? I think it might perhaps also strengthen your work, as you can rank/rate the different categories at least in terms of causing large scale loss of life.
Ranking the risks is outside the scope of our work. Interpreting the metaculus questions sounds interesting, though it is not obvious how to disentangle the scenarios that forecasters had in mind. I think the Forecasting Research Institute is doing some related work, surveying forecasters on different risks.