… my 80% credence interval for the net present value is $30B - $1 trillion. I’m super confused how to think about the upper end because the 90th percentile case is some super weird transformative AI future. Maybe I should instead say that my 50% credence interval is $20B - $200B.′ [emphases added]
Shouldn’t your lower bound for the 50% interval be higher than for the 80% interval? Or is the second interval based on different assumptions, e.g. including/​ruling out some AI stuff?
(Not sure this is an important question, given how much uncertainty there is in these numbers anyway.)
Shouldn’t your lower bound for the 50% interval be higher than for the 80% interval?
If the intervals were centered—i.e., spanning the 10th to 90th and the 25th to 75th percentile, respectively—then it should be, yes.
I could now claim that I wasn’t giving centered intervals, but I think what is really going on is that my estimates are not diachronically consistent even if I make them within 1 minute of each other.
Interesting, thanks.
Shouldn’t your lower bound for the 50% interval be higher than for the 80% interval? Or is the second interval based on different assumptions, e.g. including/​ruling out some AI stuff?
(Not sure this is an important question, given how much uncertainty there is in these numbers anyway.)
If the intervals were centered—i.e., spanning the 10th to 90th and the 25th to 75th percentile, respectively—then it should be, yes.
I could now claim that I wasn’t giving centered intervals, but I think what is really going on is that my estimates are not diachronically consistent even if I make them within 1 minute of each other.
I also now think that the lower end of the 80% interval should probably be more like $5-15B.