(This is a bit niche, but might also be quick to produce and could fit into the existing nuclear weapons article.)
As far as Iām aware, thereās no compilation of information related to the yields of various stateās arsenals that rivals the compilations of information on numbers of warheads created by the people such as the Federation of American Scientists. (Though I didnāt look very hard, so please tell me if Iām wrong! In any case, OWID-style visualiations would be handy too.)
I think that creating such a compilation would be at least somewhat useful (though Iām not sure how useful), e.g. for forecasting future changes.
More specifically, Iād like to be able to easily find answers to questions like:
What is the current total yield of global nuclear arsenals?
What is the largest yield warhead currently in any stateās arsenal?
What is the current total yield of various specific countriesā nuclear arsenals (especially Russia and the US)?
What is the largest yield warhead various specific countriesā currently have?
What is the mean and median yield of warheads in their arsenals?
How have each of those things changed over time?
I expect I could find answers or form educated guesses on each of those questions with some work, but itād be nice to have the info compiled and organised already.
Scraps of info that I happen to already have include:
The Nuclear Notebook column includes information on how many nuclear weapons of various types each country is estimated to have and what these weaponsā estimated yields are
Someone could run the simple calculationsāinputting assumptions and estimated guesses where required, e.g. where Nuclear Notebook decline to estimate a particular numberāto gather info relevant to the above questions
Including adding things up across countries
Someone could also look at previous editions of Nuclear Notebook to see how these things have changed over time (though I think only over the span of a few years)
The Nuclear Notebook column includes information on when various countriesā arsenal size peaked and when their total yield peaked
If I recall correctly, total yield always peaks earlier
I could share my notes on this if people are interested
Perhaps one could consult Nuclear Notebookās sources for these claims and thereby compile datasets and graphs relevant to the above questions?
Turco et al. wrote in 1983 that āA review of the worldās nuclear arsenals (20-24) shows that the primary strategic and theater weapons amount to ~12,000 megatons (MT) of yield carried by ~17,000 warheads.ā
That implies a mean yield at that time of 700kt
(I originally proposed people on Metaculus create this, but I expect that wonāt happen and OWID seems ideally suited for this.)
Info on nuclear yields
(This is a bit niche, but might also be quick to produce and could fit into the existing nuclear weapons article.)
As far as Iām aware, thereās no compilation of information related to the yields of various stateās arsenals that rivals the compilations of information on numbers of warheads created by the people such as the Federation of American Scientists. (Though I didnāt look very hard, so please tell me if Iām wrong! In any case, OWID-style visualiations would be handy too.)
I think that creating such a compilation would be at least somewhat useful (though Iām not sure how useful), e.g. for forecasting future changes.
More specifically, Iād like to be able to easily find answers to questions like:
What is the current total yield of global nuclear arsenals?
What is the largest yield warhead currently in any stateās arsenal?
What is the current total yield of various specific countriesā nuclear arsenals (especially Russia and the US)?
What is the largest yield warhead various specific countriesā currently have?
What is the mean and median yield of warheads in their arsenals?
How have each of those things changed over time?
I expect I could find answers or form educated guesses on each of those questions with some work, but itād be nice to have the info compiled and organised already.
Scraps of info that I happen to already have include:
The Nuclear Notebook column includes information on how many nuclear weapons of various types each country is estimated to have and what these weaponsā estimated yields are
Someone could run the simple calculationsāinputting assumptions and estimated guesses where required, e.g. where Nuclear Notebook decline to estimate a particular numberāto gather info relevant to the above questions
Including adding things up across countries
Someone could also look at previous editions of Nuclear Notebook to see how these things have changed over time (though I think only over the span of a few years)
The Nuclear Notebook column includes information on when various countriesā arsenal size peaked and when their total yield peaked
If I recall correctly, total yield always peaks earlier
I could share my notes on this if people are interested
Perhaps one could consult Nuclear Notebookās sources for these claims and thereby compile datasets and graphs relevant to the above questions?
Turco et al. wrote in 1983 that āA review of the worldās nuclear arsenals (20-24) shows that the primary strategic and theater weapons amount to ~12,000 megatons (MT) of yield carried by ~17,000 warheads.ā
That implies a mean yield at that time of 700kt
(I originally proposed people on Metaculus create this, but I expect that wonāt happen and OWID seems ideally suited for this.)