(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.