(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
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(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.