I’d be curious how much you think previous attempts at calculating multiple impacts address cluelessness, such as Causal Networks Model, saving lives in the present generation and reducing X risk for AI and alternate foods, and cause area comparison.
(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
Another attempt.
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I’d be curious how much you think previous attempts at calculating multiple impacts address cluelessness, such as Causal Networks Model, saving lives in the present generation and reducing X risk for AI and alternate foods, and cause area comparison.
(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
Another attempt.