I’d be curious how much you think previous attempts at calculating multiple impacts address cluelessness, such as Causal Networks Model, saving lives in the present generation and reducing X risk for AI and alternate foods, and cause area comparison.
(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
Another attempt.
I’d be curious how much you think previous attempts at calculating multiple impacts address cluelessness, such as Causal Networks Model, saving lives in the present generation and reducing X risk for AI and alternate foods, and cause area comparison.
(Sorry I never replied to this!)
I’m generally skeptical of our ability to model far future outcomes quantitatively, given our present level of information. I haven’t thought particularly carefully about the specific examples you link to, though.
Another attempt.