Thanks for sharing this history and your perspective Aaron.
I agree that 1) the problems with the 3rd edition were less severe than those with the 2nd edition (though I’d say that’s a very low bar to clear) and 2) the 3rd edition looks more representative if you weigh the “more to explore” sections equally with “the essentials” (though IMO it’s pretty clear that the curriculum places way more weight on the content it frames as “essential” than a content linked to at the bottom of the “further reading” section.)
I disagree with your characterization of “The Effectiveness Mindset”, “Differences in Impact”, and “Expanding Our Compassion” as neartermist content in a way that’s comparable to how subsequent sections are longtermist content. The early sections include some content that is clearly neartermist (e.g. “The case against speciesism”, and “The moral imperative toward cost-effectiveness in global health”). But much, maybe most, of the “essential” reading in the first three sections isn’t really about neartermist (or longtermist) causes. For instance, “We are in triage every second of every day” is about… triage. I’d also put “On Fringe Ideas”, “Moral Progress and Cause X”, “Can one person make a difference?”, “Radical Empathy”, and “Prospecting for Gold” in this bucket.
By contrast, the essential reading in the “Longtermism”, “Existential Risk”, and “Emerging technologies” section is all highly focused on longtermist causes/worldview; it’s all stuff like “Reducing global catastrophic biological risks”, “The case for reducing existential risk”, and “The case for strong longtermism”.
I also disagree that the “What we may be missing?” section places much emphasis on longtermist critiques (outside of the “more to explore” section, which I don’t think carries much weight as mentioned earlier). “Pascal’s mugging” is relevant to, but not specific to, longtermism, and “The case of the missing cause prioritization research” doesn’t criticize longtermist ideas per se, it more argues that the shift toward prioritizing longtermism hasn’t been informed by significant amounts of relevant research. I find it telling that “Objections to EA” (framed as a bit of a laundry list) doesn’t include anything about longtermism and that as far as I can tell no content in this whole section addresses the most frequent and intuitive criticism of longtermism I’ve heard (that it’s really really hard to influence the far future so we should be skeptical of our ability to do so).
Process-wise, I don’t think the use of test readers was an effective way of making sure the handbook was representative. Each test reader only saw a fraction of the content, so they’d be in no position to comment on the handbook as a whole. While I’m glad you approached members of the animal and global development communities for feedback, I think the fact that they didn’t respond is itself a form of (negative) feedback (which I would guess reflects the skepticism Michael expressed that his feedback would be incorporated). I’d feel better about the process if, for example, you’d posted in poverty and animal focused Facebook groups and offered to pay people (like the test readers were paid) to weigh in on whether the handbook represented their cause appropriately.
I’ll read any reply to this and make sure CEA sees it, but I don’t plan to respond further myself, as I’m no longer working on this project.
Thanks for the response. I agree with some of your points and disagree with others.
To preface this, I wouldn’t make a claim like “the 3rd edition was representative for X definition of the word” or “I was satisfied with the Handbook when we published it” (I left CEA with 19 pages of notes on changes I was considering). There’s plenty of good criticism that one could make of it, from almost any perspective.
It’s pretty clear that the curriculum places way more weight on the content it frames as “essential” than a content linked to at the bottom of the “further reading” section.
I agree.
But much, maybe most, of the “essential” reading in the first three sections isn’t really about neartermist (or longtermist) causes. For instance, “We are in triage every second of every day” is about… triage. I’d also put “On Fringe Ideas”, “Moral Progress and Cause X”, “Can one person make a difference?”, “Radical Empathy”, and “Prospecting for Gold” in this bucket.
Many of these have ideas that can be applied to either perspective. But the actual things they discuss are mostly near-term causes.
“On Fringe Ideas” focuses on wild animal welfare.
“We are in triage” ends with a discussion of global development (an area where the triage metaphor makes far more intuitive sense than it does for longtermist areas).
“Radical Empathy” is almost entirely focused on specific neartermist causes.
“Can one person make a difference” features three people who made a big difference — two doctors and Petrov. Long-term impact gets a brief shout-out at the end, but the impact of each person is measured by how many lives they saved in their own time (or through to the present day).
This is different from e.g. detailed pieces describing causes like malaria prevention or vitamin supplementation. I think that’s a real gap in the Handbook, and worth addressing.
But it seems to me like anyone who starts the Handbook will get a very strong impression in those first three sections that EA cares a lot about near-term causes, helping people today, helping animals, and tackling measurable problems. That impression matters more to me than cause-specific knowledge (though again, some of that would still be nice!).
However, I may be biased here by my teaching experience. In the two introductory fellowships I’ve facilitated, participants who read these essays spent their first three weeks discussing almost exclusively near-term causes and examples.
By contrast, the essential reading in the “Longtermism”, “Existential Risk”, and “Emerging technologies” section is all highly focused on longtermist causes/worldview; it’s all stuff like “Reducing global catastrophic biological risks”, “The case for reducing existential risk”, and “The case for strong longtermism”.
I agree that the reading in these sections is more focused. Nonetheless, I still feel like there’s a decent balance, for reasons that aren’t obvious from the content alone:
Most people have a better intuitive sense for neartermist causes and ideas. I found that longtermism (and AI specifically) required more explanation and discussion before people understood them, relative to the causes and ideas mentioned in the first three weeks. Population ethics alone took up most of a week.
“Longtermist” causes sometimes aren’t. I still don’t quite understand how we decided to add pandemic prevention to the “longtermist” bucket. When that issue came up, people were intensely interested and found the subject relative to their own lives/the lives of people they knew.
I wouldn’t be surprised if many people in EA (including people in my intro fellowships) saw many of Toby Ord’s “policy and research ideas” as competitive with AMF just for saving people alive today.
I assume there are also people who would see AMF as competitive with many longtermist orgs in terms of improving the future, but I’d guess they aren’t nearly as common.
“Pascal’s mugging” is relevant to, but not specific to, longtermism
I don’t think I’ve seen Pascal’s Mugging discussed in any non-longtermist context, unless you count actual religion. Do you have an example on hand for where people have applied the idea to a neartermist cause?
“The case of the missing cause prioritization research” doesn’t criticize longtermist ideas per se, it more argues that the shift toward prioritizing longtermism hasn’t been informed by significant amounts of relevant research.
I agree. I wouldn’t think of that piece as critical of longtermism.
As far as I can tell, no content in this whole section addresses the most frequent and intuitive criticism of longtermism I’ve heard (that it’s really really hard to influence the far future so we should be skeptical of our ability to do so).
I haven’t gone back to check all the material, but I assume you’re correct. I think it would be useful to add more content on this point.
This is another case where my experience as a facilitator warps my perspective; I think both of my groups discussed this, so it didn’t occur to me that it wasn’t an “official” topic.
Process-wise, I don’t think the use of test readers was an effective way of making sure the handbook was representative. Each test reader only saw a fraction of the content, so they’d be in no position to comment on the handbook as a whole.
I agree. That wasn’t the purpose of selecting test readers; I mentioned them only because some of them happened to make useful suggestions on this front.
While I’m glad you approached members of the animal and global development communities for feedback, I think the fact that they didn’t respond is itself a form of (negative) feedback (which I would guess reflects the skepticism Michael expressed that his feedback would be incorporated).
I wrote to four people, two of whom (including Michael) sent useful feedback . The other two also responded; one said they were busy, the other seemed excited/interested but never wound up sending anything.
A 50% useful-response rate isn’t bad, and makes me wish I’d sent more of those emails. My excuse is the dumb-but-true “I was busy, and this was one project among many”.
(As an aside, if someone wanted to draft a near-term-focused version of the Handbook, I think they’d have a very good shot at getting a grant.)
I’d feel better about the process if, for example, you’d posted in poverty and animal focused Facebook groups and offered to pay people (like the test readers were paid) to weigh in on whether the handbook represented their cause appropriately.
I’d probably have asked “what else should we include?” rather than “is this current stuff good?”, but I agree with this in spirit.
(As another aside, if you specifically have ideas for material you’d like to see included, I’d be happy to pass them along to CEA — or you could contact someone like Max or Lizka.)
But it seems to me like anyone who starts the Handbook will get a very strong impression in those first three sections that EA cares a lot about near-term causes, helping people today, helping animals, and tackling measurable problems. That impression matters more to me than cause-specific knowledge (though again, some of that would still be nice!).
However, I may be biased here by my teaching experience. In the two introductory fellowships I’ve facilitated, participants who read these essays spent their first three weeks discussing almost exclusively near-term causes and examples.
That’s helpful anecdata about your teaching experience. I’d love to see a more rigorous and thorough study of how participants respond to the fellowships to see how representative your experience is.
I don’t think I’ve seen Pascal’s Mugging discussed in any non-longtermist context, unless you count actual religion. Do you have an example on hand for where people have applied the idea to a neartermist cause?
I’m pretty sure I’ve heard it used in the context of a scenario questioning whether torture is justified to stop the threat dirty bomb that’s about to go off in a city.
I wrote to four people, two of whom (including Michael) sent useful feedback . The other two also responded; one said they were busy, the other seemed excited/interested but never wound up sending anything.
A 50% useful-response rate isn’t bad, and makes me wish I’d sent more of those emails. My excuse is the dumb-but-true “I was busy, and this was one project among many”.
That’s a good excuse :) I misinterpreted Michael’s previous comment as saying his feedback didn’t get incorporated at all. This process seems better than I’d realized (though still short of what I’d have liked to see after the negative reaction to the 2nd edition).
if you specifically have ideas for material you’d like to see included, I’d be happy to pass them along to CEA — or you could contact someone like Max or Lizka.
GiveWell’s Giving 101 would be a great fit for global poverty. For animal welfare content, I’d suggest making the first chapter of Animal Liberation part of the essential content (or at least further reading), rather than part of the “more to explore” content. But my meta-suggestion would be to ask people who specialize in doing poverty/animal outreach for suggestions.
Thanks for sharing this history and your perspective Aaron.
I agree that 1) the problems with the 3rd edition were less severe than those with the 2nd edition (though I’d say that’s a very low bar to clear) and 2) the 3rd edition looks more representative if you weigh the “more to explore” sections equally with “the essentials” (though IMO it’s pretty clear that the curriculum places way more weight on the content it frames as “essential” than a content linked to at the bottom of the “further reading” section.)
I disagree with your characterization of “The Effectiveness Mindset”, “Differences in Impact”, and “Expanding Our Compassion” as neartermist content in a way that’s comparable to how subsequent sections are longtermist content. The early sections include some content that is clearly neartermist (e.g. “The case against speciesism”, and “The moral imperative toward cost-effectiveness in global health”). But much, maybe most, of the
“essential” reading in the first three sections isn’t really about neartermist (or longtermist) causes. For instance, “We are in triage every second of every day” is about… triage. I’d also put “On Fringe Ideas”, “Moral Progress and Cause X”, “Can one person make a difference?”, “Radical Empathy”, and “Prospecting for Gold” in this bucket.
By contrast, the essential reading in the “Longtermism”, “Existential Risk”, and “Emerging technologies” section is all highly focused on longtermist causes/worldview; it’s all stuff like “Reducing global catastrophic biological risks”, “The case for reducing existential risk”, and “The case for strong longtermism”.
I also disagree that the “What we may be missing?” section places much emphasis on longtermist critiques (outside of the “more to explore” section, which I don’t think carries much weight as mentioned earlier). “Pascal’s mugging” is relevant to, but not specific to, longtermism, and “The case of the missing cause prioritization research” doesn’t criticize longtermist ideas per se, it more argues that the shift toward prioritizing longtermism hasn’t been informed by significant amounts of relevant research. I find it telling that “Objections to EA” (framed as a bit of a laundry list) doesn’t include anything about longtermism and that as far as I can tell no content in this whole section addresses the most frequent and intuitive criticism of longtermism I’ve heard (that it’s really really hard to influence the far future so we should be skeptical of our ability to do so).
Process-wise, I don’t think the use of test readers was an effective way of making sure the handbook was representative. Each test reader only saw a fraction of the content, so they’d be in no position to comment on the handbook as a whole. While I’m glad you approached members of the animal and global development communities for feedback, I think the fact that they didn’t respond is itself a form of (negative) feedback (which I would guess reflects the skepticism Michael expressed that his feedback would be incorporated). I’d feel better about the process if, for example, you’d posted in poverty and animal focused Facebook groups and offered to pay people (like the test readers were paid) to weigh in on whether the handbook represented their cause appropriately.
I’ll read any reply to this and make sure CEA sees it, but I don’t plan to respond further myself, as I’m no longer working on this project.
Thanks for the response. I agree with some of your points and disagree with others.
To preface this, I wouldn’t make a claim like “the 3rd edition was representative for X definition of the word” or “I was satisfied with the Handbook when we published it” (I left CEA with 19 pages of notes on changes I was considering). There’s plenty of good criticism that one could make of it, from almost any perspective.
I agree.
Many of these have ideas that can be applied to either perspective. But the actual things they discuss are mostly near-term causes.
“On Fringe Ideas” focuses on wild animal welfare.
“We are in triage” ends with a discussion of global development (an area where the triage metaphor makes far more intuitive sense than it does for longtermist areas).
“Radical Empathy” is almost entirely focused on specific neartermist causes.
“Can one person make a difference” features three people who made a big difference — two doctors and Petrov. Long-term impact gets a brief shout-out at the end, but the impact of each person is measured by how many lives they saved in their own time (or through to the present day).
This is different from e.g. detailed pieces describing causes like malaria prevention or vitamin supplementation. I think that’s a real gap in the Handbook, and worth addressing.
But it seems to me like anyone who starts the Handbook will get a very strong impression in those first three sections that EA cares a lot about near-term causes, helping people today, helping animals, and tackling measurable problems. That impression matters more to me than cause-specific knowledge (though again, some of that would still be nice!).
However, I may be biased here by my teaching experience. In the two introductory fellowships I’ve facilitated, participants who read these essays spent their first three weeks discussing almost exclusively near-term causes and examples.
I agree that the reading in these sections is more focused. Nonetheless, I still feel like there’s a decent balance, for reasons that aren’t obvious from the content alone:
Most people have a better intuitive sense for neartermist causes and ideas. I found that longtermism (and AI specifically) required more explanation and discussion before people understood them, relative to the causes and ideas mentioned in the first three weeks. Population ethics alone took up most of a week.
“Longtermist” causes sometimes aren’t. I still don’t quite understand how we decided to add pandemic prevention to the “longtermist” bucket. When that issue came up, people were intensely interested and found the subject relative to their own lives/the lives of people they knew.
I wouldn’t be surprised if many people in EA (including people in my intro fellowships) saw many of Toby Ord’s “policy and research ideas” as competitive with AMF just for saving people alive today.
I assume there are also people who would see AMF as competitive with many longtermist orgs in terms of improving the future, but I’d guess they aren’t nearly as common.
I don’t think I’ve seen Pascal’s Mugging discussed in any non-longtermist context, unless you count actual religion. Do you have an example on hand for where people have applied the idea to a neartermist cause?
I agree. I wouldn’t think of that piece as critical of longtermism.
I haven’t gone back to check all the material, but I assume you’re correct. I think it would be useful to add more content on this point.
This is another case where my experience as a facilitator warps my perspective; I think both of my groups discussed this, so it didn’t occur to me that it wasn’t an “official” topic.
I agree. That wasn’t the purpose of selecting test readers; I mentioned them only because some of them happened to make useful suggestions on this front.
I wrote to four people, two of whom (including Michael) sent useful feedback . The other two also responded; one said they were busy, the other seemed excited/interested but never wound up sending anything.
A 50% useful-response rate isn’t bad, and makes me wish I’d sent more of those emails. My excuse is the dumb-but-true “I was busy, and this was one project among many”.
(As an aside, if someone wanted to draft a near-term-focused version of the Handbook, I think they’d have a very good shot at getting a grant.)
I’d probably have asked “what else should we include?” rather than “is this current stuff good?”, but I agree with this in spirit.
(As another aside, if you specifically have ideas for material you’d like to see included, I’d be happy to pass them along to CEA — or you could contact someone like Max or Lizka.)
That’s helpful anecdata about your teaching experience. I’d love to see a more rigorous and thorough study of how participants respond to the fellowships to see how representative your experience is.
I’m pretty sure I’ve heard it used in the context of a scenario questioning whether torture is justified to stop the threat dirty bomb that’s about to go off in a city.
That’s a good excuse :) I misinterpreted Michael’s previous comment as saying his feedback didn’t get incorporated at all. This process seems better than I’d realized (though still short of what I’d have liked to see after the negative reaction to the 2nd edition).
GiveWell’s Giving 101 would be a great fit for global poverty. For animal welfare content, I’d suggest making the first chapter of Animal Liberation part of the essential content (or at least further reading), rather than part of the “more to explore” content. But my meta-suggestion would be to ask people who specialize in doing poverty/animal outreach for suggestions.