Sorry for not realizing you worked at DeepMind; my comment would have looked different had I known about our shared context. (Also, consider writing a bio!)
I think weâre aligned in our desire to see more early-career EAs apply to those roles (and on most other things). My post aimed to:
1. Provide some background on some of the more âsuccessfulâ people associated with EA.
2. Point out that ârecruiting people with lots of career capitalâ may be comparable to âacquiring career capitalâ as a strategy to maximize impact. Of course, the latter makes the former easier, if you actually succeed, but it also takes more time.
On point (2): What fraction of the money/âsocial capital EA will someday acquire âalready existsâ? Is our future going to look more like âlots of EA people succeededâ, or âlots of successful people found EAâ?
Historically, both strategies seem to have worked for different social movements; the most successful neoliberals grew into their influence, while the Fabian Society relied on recruiting top talent. (Iâm not a history expert, and this could be far too simple.)
--
One concern I have about the âmaximize career capitalâ strategy is that it has tricky social implications; itâs easy for a âmost people should do Xâ message to become âeveryone who doesnât do X is wrongâ, as Richard points out. But career capital acquisition doesnât lead to as much direct competition between EAs, and could produce more skill-per-person in the process, so perhaps itâs actually just better for most people.
Some of my difficulty in grasping the big picture for the community as a whole is that I donât have a sense for what early-career EAs are actually working on. Sometimes, it feels like everyone is a grad student or FAANG programmer (not much potential for outsize returns). At other times, it feels like everyone is trying to start a company or a charity (lots of potential, lots of risk).
Is there any specific path you think not enough people in the community are taking from a âbig wins earlyâ perspective? Joining startups? Studying a particular field?
--
Finally, on the subject of risk, I think Iâm going to take this comment and turn it into a post. (Brief summary: Someday, when we look back on the impact of EA, weâll have a good sense for whose work was âmost impactfulâ, but that shouldnât matter nearly as much to our future selves as the fact that many unsuccessful people still tried their best to do good, and were also part of the movementâs âgrand storyâ.) I hope we keep respecting good strategy and careful thinking, whether those things are attached to high-risk or low-risk pursuits.
I donât have enough data to know if there are specific paths not enough people are taking, but Iâm pretty certain thereâs a question that not enough people are asking within the paths theyâre taking: how is what Iâm doing *right now* going to lead to a 10x/â100x/â1,000x win, in expectation? Whatâs the Move 37 Iâm making, that nobody else is seeing? This mentality that can be applied in pretty much any career path.
Note that your argument here is roughly Ben Paceâs position in this post which we co-wrote. I argued against Benâs position in the post because I thought it was too extreme, but I agree with both of you that most EAs arenât going far enough in that direction.
Thanks for this reply!
Sorry for not realizing you worked at DeepMind; my comment would have looked different had I known about our shared context. (Also, consider writing a bio!)
I think weâre aligned in our desire to see more early-career EAs apply to those roles (and on most other things). My post aimed to:
1. Provide some background on some of the more âsuccessfulâ people associated with EA.
2. Point out that ârecruiting people with lots of career capitalâ may be comparable to âacquiring career capitalâ as a strategy to maximize impact. Of course, the latter makes the former easier, if you actually succeed, but it also takes more time.
On point (2): What fraction of the money/âsocial capital EA will someday acquire âalready existsâ? Is our future going to look more like âlots of EA people succeededâ, or âlots of successful people found EAâ?
Historically, both strategies seem to have worked for different social movements; the most successful neoliberals grew into their influence, while the Fabian Society relied on recruiting top talent. (Iâm not a history expert, and this could be far too simple.)
--
One concern I have about the âmaximize career capitalâ strategy is that it has tricky social implications; itâs easy for a âmost people should do Xâ message to become âeveryone who doesnât do X is wrongâ, as Richard points out. But career capital acquisition doesnât lead to as much direct competition between EAs, and could produce more skill-per-person in the process, so perhaps itâs actually just better for most people.
Some of my difficulty in grasping the big picture for the community as a whole is that I donât have a sense for what early-career EAs are actually working on. Sometimes, it feels like everyone is a grad student or FAANG programmer (not much potential for outsize returns). At other times, it feels like everyone is trying to start a company or a charity (lots of potential, lots of risk).
Is there any specific path you think not enough people in the community are taking from a âbig wins earlyâ perspective? Joining startups? Studying a particular field?
--
Finally, on the subject of risk, I think Iâm going to take this comment and turn it into a post. (Brief summary: Someday, when we look back on the impact of EA, weâll have a good sense for whose work was âmost impactfulâ, but that shouldnât matter nearly as much to our future selves as the fact that many unsuccessful people still tried their best to do good, and were also part of the movementâs âgrand storyâ.) I hope we keep respecting good strategy and careful thinking, whether those things are attached to high-risk or low-risk pursuits.
I donât have enough data to know if there are specific paths not enough people are taking, but Iâm pretty certain thereâs a question that not enough people are asking within the paths theyâre taking: how is what Iâm doing *right now* going to lead to a 10x/â100x/â1,000x win, in expectation? Whatâs the Move 37 Iâm making, that nobody else is seeing? This mentality that can be applied in pretty much any career path.
Note that your argument here is roughly Ben Paceâs position in this post which we co-wrote. I argued against Benâs position in the post because I thought it was too extreme, but I agree with both of you that most EAs arenât going far enough in that direction.