Thanks good points, I don’t think we disagree directionally, perhaps just on how important some of these effects are. It feels like a very difficult epistemic problem to attribute how much the relative absence of bioweapons use is attributable to the BWC—I know roughly nothing about exploding bullets and the like, but maybe they are just more useful than bioweapons for most belligerants? And therefore are used more irrespective of how strong the relevant treaties are.
But yes, agree that these aspects still provide some value :)
Yeah, I don’t think there’s a ton of benefit it trading hypotheticals and counterfactuals here, especially because I don’t think much of anyone’s intutions will be conveyed clearly, but I do think it’s worth noting that it’s not obvious to me that the convention didn’t have a large counterfactual impact over the past 50 years.
Thanks good points, I don’t think we disagree directionally, perhaps just on how important some of these effects are. It feels like a very difficult epistemic problem to attribute how much the relative absence of bioweapons use is attributable to the BWC—I know roughly nothing about exploding bullets and the like, but maybe they are just more useful than bioweapons for most belligerants? And therefore are used more irrespective of how strong the relevant treaties are. But yes, agree that these aspects still provide some value :)
Yeah, I don’t think there’s a ton of benefit it trading hypotheticals and counterfactuals here, especially because I don’t think much of anyone’s intutions will be conveyed clearly, but I do think it’s worth noting that it’s not obvious to me that the convention didn’t have a large counterfactual impact over the past 50 years.