To be clear I’m not arguing that people shouldn’t think about it or try to solve it. I’m definitely in favor of more discussion on that topic and I’d love to read some high effort analysis from an EA perspective.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
There is little room for improvement here...
Which in that case that’s a fair critique. I’m not well-informed enough to know the options here and their advantages and risks in great detail, so my perception that there’s not much room for improvement could be way off base.
I’d summarize my position as having the perception that the Taiwan issue is a hard question that I’m not equipped to solve and I’m skeptical that there are significant improvements available there, so instead I focused on a topic that I view as low hanging fruit. Though I was probably wrong to characterize the Taiwan issue as futile or unimprovable, instead I should have characterized it as a highly complex issue that I’m not equipped to do justice to and I perceive as having substantial downsides to any shift in policy.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
There is little room for improvement here...
I think I’m making two points. The first point was, yeah, I think there is substantial room for improvement here. But the second point is necessary: analyzing the situation with Taiwan is crucial if we seek to effectively reduce nuclear risk.
I do not think it was wrong to focus on the trade war. It depends on your goals. If you wanted to promote quick, actionable and robust advice, it made sense. If you wanted to stare straight into the abyss, and solve the problem directly, it made a little less sense. Sometimes the first thing is what we need. But, as I’m glad to hear, you seem to agree with me that we also sometimes need to do the second thing.
Yeah definitely on the same page then! I agree with what you said there with the possible exception or caveat that I’m skeptical on improvements to the Taiwan issue and that if you find or know of any persuasive abyss-staring arguments on this topic (or write them yourself) I’d appreciate it if you share them with me because I’d be happy to be wrong in my skepticism and would like to learn more about any promising options.
To be clear I’m not arguing that people shouldn’t think about it or try to solve it. I’m definitely in favor of more discussion on that topic and I’d love to read some high effort analysis from an EA perspective.
If I’m understanding correctly the main point you’re making is that I probably shouldn’t have said this:
Which in that case that’s a fair critique. I’m not well-informed enough to know the options here and their advantages and risks in great detail, so my perception that there’s not much room for improvement could be way off base.
I’d summarize my position as having the perception that the Taiwan issue is a hard question that I’m not equipped to solve and I’m skeptical that there are significant improvements available there, so instead I focused on a topic that I view as low hanging fruit. Though I was probably wrong to characterize the Taiwan issue as futile or unimprovable, instead I should have characterized it as a highly complex issue that I’m not equipped to do justice to and I perceive as having substantial downsides to any shift in policy.
Thanks for the continued discussion.
I think I’m making two points. The first point was, yeah, I think there is substantial room for improvement here. But the second point is necessary: analyzing the situation with Taiwan is crucial if we seek to effectively reduce nuclear risk.
I do not think it was wrong to focus on the trade war. It depends on your goals. If you wanted to promote quick, actionable and robust advice, it made sense. If you wanted to stare straight into the abyss, and solve the problem directly, it made a little less sense. Sometimes the first thing is what we need. But, as I’m glad to hear, you seem to agree with me that we also sometimes need to do the second thing.
Yeah definitely on the same page then! I agree with what you said there with the possible exception or caveat that I’m skeptical on improvements to the Taiwan issue and that if you find or know of any persuasive abyss-staring arguments on this topic (or write them yourself) I’d appreciate it if you share them with me because I’d be happy to be wrong in my skepticism and would like to learn more about any promising options.