See the new Q&A item addressing the ned to build capacity; they could give to Givewell, Givedirectly, or via Coeff’s funds specific to their goals. They could also give via Gates foundation, etc. They can do this while building up their internal capacity, so they really don’t need to delay additional years.
They have incredibly short AGI timelines, so per their own views, they can’t afford to move slowly. If they are giving less than 5% of assets after they already claim AGI, that’s a huge failure. So in my view, your proposed 2028 target for giving so little that they are more than doubling assets yearly is insanely conservative, not at all “an aggressive, public ramp-up targets.”
That said, yes, I already agreed that actually ambitious public ramp-up commitments could be sufficient; as I said in the post “if it’s done in the next two years, I will admit they are doing their jobs”—but they didn’t announce any such plans, and as noted in the post, the total giving commitment is a cash total certainly worth less than 1/6th of their (current rapidly growing) funds; that’s insanely low given that it is their total eventual commitment!
They have incredibly short AGI timelines, so per their own views, they can’t afford to move slowly. If they are giving less than 5% of assets after they already claim AGI, that’s a huge failure.
Do we know whether this is true for the OAF board?[1] Sam Altman is on it, and he definitely believes something along these lines but it’s less clear for the others. Here’s a ChatGPT and a Claude answer on this, which points towards the others being less bullish & concerned (but also a lack of information about what they believe). I expect there to be a range of views on timelines & transformativeness of AGI among the board members – which probably makes it more likely that their spending targets are compatible with the foundations mission.
Bret Taylor (Chair), Adam D’Angelo, Dr. Sue Desmond-Hellmann, Dr. Zico Kolter, Retired U.S. Army General Paul M. Nakasone, Adebayo Ogunlesi, Nicole Seligman, Sam Altman
That’s a really good point, thanks! Though if they don’t have short timelines, it seems like they are being quite irresponsible as board members not preventing Sam from making increasingly large bets on scaling. Of course, they might not be willing to cross him; the current board presumably learned the lesson from Ilya’s ill-fated decision.
Also, you need what are currently considered almost implausibly long timelines to not think that them spending more quickly makes sense.
This is year two, not year one.
See the new Q&A item addressing the ned to build capacity; they could give to Givewell, Givedirectly, or via Coeff’s funds specific to their goals. They could also give via Gates foundation, etc. They can do this while building up their internal capacity, so they really don’t need to delay additional years.
They have incredibly short AGI timelines, so per their own views, they can’t afford to move slowly. If they are giving less than 5% of assets after they already claim AGI, that’s a huge failure. So in my view, your proposed 2028 target for giving so little that they are more than doubling assets yearly is insanely conservative, not at all “an aggressive, public ramp-up targets.”
That said, yes, I already agreed that actually ambitious public ramp-up commitments could be sufficient; as I said in the post “if it’s done in the next two years, I will admit they are doing their jobs”—but they didn’t announce any such plans, and as noted in the post, the total giving commitment is a cash total certainly worth less than 1/6th of their (current rapidly growing) funds; that’s insanely low given that it is their total eventual commitment!
Good points, thank you!
Do we know whether this is true for the OAF board?[1] Sam Altman is on it, and he definitely believes something along these lines but it’s less clear for the others. Here’s a ChatGPT and a Claude answer on this, which points towards the others being less bullish & concerned (but also a lack of information about what they believe). I expect there to be a range of views on timelines & transformativeness of AGI among the board members – which probably makes it more likely that their spending targets are compatible with the foundations mission.
Bret Taylor (Chair), Adam D’Angelo, Dr. Sue Desmond-Hellmann, Dr. Zico Kolter, Retired U.S. Army General Paul M. Nakasone, Adebayo Ogunlesi, Nicole Seligman, Sam Altman
That’s a really good point, thanks! Though if they don’t have short timelines, it seems like they are being quite irresponsible as board members not preventing Sam from making increasingly large bets on scaling. Of course, they might not be willing to cross him; the current board presumably learned the lesson from Ilya’s ill-fated decision.
Also, you need what are currently considered almost implausibly long timelines to not think that them spending more quickly makes sense.