But, as I say in the following sentences it seems plausible to me that without betting markets to keep the numbers accessible and Silver to keep pushing on them, it would have taken longer for the initial crash to become visible, it could have faded from the news and it could have been hard to see that others were gaining momentum.
All of these changes seem to increase the chance of biden staying in, which was pretty knife edgy for a long time.
I made it up[1].
But, as I say in the following sentences it seems plausible to me that without betting markets to keep the numbers accessible and Silver to keep pushing on them, it would have taken longer for the initial crash to become visible, it could have faded from the news and it could have been hard to see that others were gaining momentum.
All of these changes seem to increase the chance of biden staying in, which was pretty knife edgy for a long time.
https://nathanpmyoung.substack.com/p/forecasting-is-mostly-vibes-so-is
thanks for the response!
looks like the link in the footnotes is private. maybe there’s a public version you could share?
re: the rest — makes sense. 1%-5% doesn’t seem crazy to me, i think i would’ve “made up” 0.5%-2%, and these aren’t way off.
How about now https://nathanpmyoung.substack.com/p/forecasting-is-mostly-vibes-so-is
works! thx