An interesting thing I noted when reading through your recent comment is that all 3 of the examples of progress involve a broadening of EA, expanding horizons, pushing back on the idea that we need to be focusing right now on AI risk now.
The post Tobias was commenting on requested ānovel majorā insights specifically. This guarantees that the examples provided would be ones that broadened EA, expanded its horizons, and pushed back on whatever priorities EA had before 2015. So I donāt think we should read anything into the fact that a high proportion of the examples were of that kind, rather than e.g. refinements of existing ideas or object-level work within particular cause areas (since the question excluded such things).
(That said, I do think that the number and nature of examples we can come up with in answering that question is relevant to how useful further cause prioritisation research would be. In particular, the fact that commenters came up with some examples rather than 0 examples seems to be evidence that some cause prioritisation research occurred and was useful over the last 5 years. And the fact they came up with relatively few examples is evidence that relatively little such research occurred or was useful. And this could perhaps inform our predictions about the future.)
The post Tobias was commenting on requested ānovel majorā insights specifically. This guarantees that the examples provided would be ones that broadened EA, expanded its horizons, and pushed back on whatever priorities EA had before 2015. So I donāt think we should read anything into the fact that a high proportion of the examples were of that kind, rather than e.g. refinements of existing ideas or object-level work within particular cause areas (since the question excluded such things).
(That said, I do think that the number and nature of examples we can come up with in answering that question is relevant to how useful further cause prioritisation research would be. In particular, the fact that commenters came up with some examples rather than 0 examples seems to be evidence that some cause prioritisation research occurred and was useful over the last 5 years. And the fact they came up with relatively few examples is evidence that relatively little such research occurred or was useful. And this could perhaps inform our predictions about the future.)