[Question] What are novel major insights from longtermist macrostrategy or global priorities research found since 2015?

I’ve had in­ter­est­ing con­ver­sa­tions with peo­ple based on this ques­tion, so I thought I’d ask it here. I’ll fol­low up with some of my thoughts later to avoid prim­ing.

By novel in­sights, I mean in­sights that were found for the first time. This ex­cludes the diffu­sion of ear­lier in­sights through­out the com­mu­nity.

To ges­ture at the thresh­old I have in mind for ma­jor in­sights, here are some ex­am­ples from the pre-2015 pe­riod:

  • Longtermism

  • An­thro­pogenic ex­tinc­tion risk is greater than nat­u­ral ex­tinc­tion risk

  • AI could be a tech­nol­ogy with im­pacts com­pa­rable to the In­dus­trial Revolu­tion, and those im­pacts may not be close-to-op­ti­mal by default

An ex­am­ple that feels bor­der­line to me is the unilat­er­al­ist’s curse.