This question of GJOpen, which currently gives a 70% to “Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?”.
Thank you very much for that GJOpen link. On March 30 you estimated a 66% of famine in those regions to be a slight overestimate. Would you mind sharing why you thought this way back then and if you updated in the mean time (and if yes, why)?
Currently the forecast average is at 70%. I put in a 65%.
Reasons for a lower chance:
The amount of global kcal locked up due to trade restrictions has gone done in the last week from 4.3 to 2.5% AND the USA joined the pledge to keep food supply chains running (after some hestiation apprently since they weren’t mentioned on the 21. April news article but the final version included them).
This, together with the fact that relatively high stocks exist, gives me hope that food can be shipped around the world before a famine is declared.
From the 5 countries included in the forecast I expect Tanzania and Uganda not to reach famine-levels. (Side note: South Sudan, not part of the forecast, seems to be at higher risk.)
Even though we might reach crisis levels of malnutrition, we might not see a famine being declared due to the IPC definition / thresholds.
Reasons for a higher chance:
I haven’t seen locusts responses that seemed convincing enough to be able to keep the swarms in check. A third wave in Ethiopia and Kenya is a likely possibility.
Global supply chains and responses are stressed to their limits due to COVID-19. Even if enough food globally exists, it might not reach those in need on time in sufficient quantities.
Due to economic breakdowns (local currencies losing value, export revenue collapsing) the majority (?) of food imports into these nations would need to come from humanitarian aid. It is unclear to me how much foreign aid we will see globally with a lot of debate and spending being national to combat the COVID-19 outbreak within own boarders.
I do except most of these regions to reach crisis levels though (which is a different level from the forecast). This means immense suffering, loss of life and severe poverty for the survivors (for potentially years to come) which is why action should be undertaken.
Would you mind sharing why you thought this way back then...
Because the question asks about a very specifical technical definition of famine, and I think that the crowd forecasters were anchoring on “things will get bad”, rather than on “this specific technical definition will be met”. I’d appreciate it having more bins. I also looked into the FEWS reports, and none of them forecasted the highest level. Looking into the Our World in Data page on famines, the base rate isn’t high.
I agree that it could be helpful to provide more estimates of the likelihoods of the various scenarios. I’m not sure what to make of a statement like “It is expected that the number of people on the brink of starvation will double from 135 million to 260 million within the next few months”, especially when the WFP quote was “the World Food Programme analysis shows that, due to the Coronavirus, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” When I see “x could happen”, I don’t understand that to mean “we expect x to happen. Thanks!
I’ve also looked into this, see here for some quick thoughts, and I broadly agree with your situation report.
Two useful links:
Famine Early Warning System Network, which rhymes with some of your suggestions.
This question of GJOpen, which currently gives a 70% to “Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?”.
Thank you very much for that GJOpen link. On March 30 you estimated a 66% of famine in those regions to be a slight overestimate. Would you mind sharing why you thought this way back then and if you updated in the mean time (and if yes, why)?
Currently the forecast average is at 70%. I put in a 65%.
Reasons for a lower chance:
The amount of global kcal locked up due to trade restrictions has gone done in the last week from 4.3 to 2.5% AND the USA joined the pledge to keep food supply chains running (after some hestiation apprently since they weren’t mentioned on the 21. April news article but the final version included them).
This, together with the fact that relatively high stocks exist, gives me hope that food can be shipped around the world before a famine is declared.
From the 5 countries included in the forecast I expect Tanzania and Uganda not to reach famine-levels. (Side note: South Sudan, not part of the forecast, seems to be at higher risk.)
Even though we might reach crisis levels of malnutrition, we might not see a famine being declared due to the IPC definition / thresholds.
Reasons for a higher chance:
I haven’t seen locusts responses that seemed convincing enough to be able to keep the swarms in check. A third wave in Ethiopia and Kenya is a likely possibility.
Global supply chains and responses are stressed to their limits due to COVID-19. Even if enough food globally exists, it might not reach those in need on time in sufficient quantities.
Due to economic breakdowns (local currencies losing value, export revenue collapsing) the majority (?) of food imports into these nations would need to come from humanitarian aid. It is unclear to me how much foreign aid we will see globally with a lot of debate and spending being national to combat the COVID-19 outbreak within own boarders.
I do except most of these regions to reach crisis levels though (which is a different level from the forecast). This means immense suffering, loss of life and severe poverty for the survivors (for potentially years to come) which is why action should be undertaken.
Because the question asks about a very specifical technical definition of famine, and I think that the crowd forecasters were anchoring on “things will get bad”, rather than on “this specific technical definition will be met”. I’d appreciate it having more bins. I also looked into the FEWS reports, and none of them forecasted the highest level. Looking into the Our World in Data page on famines, the base rate isn’t high.
I agree that it could be helpful to provide more estimates of the likelihoods of the various scenarios. I’m not sure what to make of a statement like “It is expected that the number of people on the brink of starvation will double from 135 million to 260 million within the next few months”, especially when the WFP quote was “the World Food Programme analysis shows that, due to the Coronavirus, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” When I see “x could happen”, I don’t understand that to mean “we expect x to happen. Thanks!