I think the crux to me is to what extent Allan’s involvement in EAish AI governance is overdetermined. If, in a world with 75% less public writings on transformative AI of Bostrom’s calibre, Allan would still be involved in EAish AI governance, then this would point against the usefulness of this step in the pipeline (at least with the Allan anecdote).
I roughly agree, though would also note that the step could be useful by merely speeding up an overdetermined career move, e.g. if Allan would’ve ended up doing similar stuff anyway but only 5 years later.
I think the crux to me is to what extent Allan’s involvement in EAish AI governance is overdetermined. If, in a world with 75% less public writings on transformative AI of Bostrom’s calibre, Allan would still be involved in EAish AI governance, then this would point against the usefulness of this step in the pipeline (at least with the Allan anecdote).
I roughly agree, though would also note that the step could be useful by merely speeding up an overdetermined career move, e.g. if Allan would’ve ended up doing similar stuff anyway but only 5 years later.
Yes, I agree that speeding up career moves is useful.