I think this sort of use case is very important. I think that this problem is probably better addressed with other methods rather than straightforward sequences of separate questions, but I imagine the latter will occasionally be useful as a solution.
I’ve also been thinking about this use case recently. I think I like the term “progressive” forecast, but I’m curious to get more takes!
Readers of this comment thread might be interested in this blog post from Johnathan Mann and this followup, where this concept is called “iterative markets”.
You can imagine strategies like, ”There’s just one question. However, people will get paid out over time, if the future aggregate agrees with their earlier forecasts. These payments can trigger at arbitrary times, and can feature a lot of flexibility regarding how far back the forecasts are that they reward.”
The effect is very similar to doing it by formally having separate questions.
(I’m sure many would consider this a minor difference)
Good point.
I think this sort of use case is very important. I think that this problem is probably better addressed with other methods rather than straightforward sequences of separate questions, but I imagine the latter will occasionally be useful as a solution.
I’ve also been thinking about this use case recently. I think I like the term “progressive” forecast, but I’m curious to get more takes!
Readers of this comment thread might be interested in this blog post from Johnathan Mann and this followup, where this concept is called “iterative markets”.
I did find that interesting, thanks for the links!
What other methods do you have in mind for it?
You can imagine strategies like,
”There’s just one question. However, people will get paid out over time, if the future aggregate agrees with their earlier forecasts. These payments can trigger at arbitrary times, and can feature a lot of flexibility regarding how far back the forecasts are that they reward.”
The effect is very similar to doing it by formally having separate questions.
(I’m sure many would consider this a minor difference)