Lorenzo, thanks for sharing that blog post. I didnât know about that, though I know about many Anthropic foundersâ previous affiliations with EA.
This is a slight update, but not enough to change my mind in the opposite direction. I already knew that Anthropic founders had a previous relationship to EA, and I donât doubt that they have donated, maybe something on the order of 10% of their income to global health before Anthropic. I know Daniela is married to Holden. I know many Anthropic founders and staff are early signatories to the GWWC pledge. I know there was a group house, and I know that early on, Anthropic foundersâ reasons for leaving OpenAI were around AI safety.
That said, my overall point still stands. They have greatly distanced themselves from EA and havenât said anything public about it in years, apart from pretending they didnât know what it was and other strange statements. Most of all, the base rate of sticking to a pledge like this is very low.
$1B is a very low number over 4-5 years, given their wealth and how much it could grow. Iâd also be interested in any donations they have made privately in the last few years (remember, they still earn decent salaries and, above all, could liquidate some stock).
I would bet that Dario Amodei makes <$1B in donations before June 2027, self-reported (money has to move, not just say some shiboleth about donating the money in the future) at 50â50 odds. Any 501(c)(3) would count.
Edit: Sorry, one more thing. I know many Anthropic employees and know about the donation match. I think many employees at Anthropic who intend to, and I believe will, donate significant amounts to charity over the next few years. Some have already started. I salute them, believe their intentions, and admire them. I merely think we have to go âbottom upâ in counting these donations as opposed to âtop-down,â where we assess a person and their intentions and what they will give to.
maybe something on the order of 10% of their income
Not sure how much it matters, but the blog post mentions $10,000 to GiveWell alone, which was likely significantly more than 10% of a graduate studentâs income.
$1B is a very low number over 4-5 years, given their wealth and how much it could grow
Yeah I agree, for what itâs worth I would expect (with low confidence) theyâll donate significantly more. But in general, for most planning, it doesnât matter how much they give in relative terms but in absolute terms.
I would bet that Dario Amodei makes <$1B in donations before June 2027, self-reported
Something interesting/âunique about Anthropicâs situation is that all 7 cofounders are now likely worth >$10B, so even if Dario doesnât donate much thereâs still a good chance others do (but obviously theyâre correlated.)
Personally, Iâm most uncertain about whether theyâll end up donating significantly to improve the welfare of biological beings vs focusing on digital beings. I expect them to take machine welfare quite seriously and increasingly so, and that to be something that markets and other funders wonât care as much about.
I think itâs also possible that they end up donating after 2027, timing donations around a potential critical transition period, and of course they have strong incentives to focus most of their capital to on winning the race.
Are you taking bets on whether the Anthropic founders will donate more than 1B before 2030? I think there is a lot of information that should update our âaverage billionaireâ prior (e.g. https://ââblog.givewell.org/ââ2010/ââ06/ââ03/ââmy-donation-for-2009-guest-post-from-dario-amodei/ââ)
Lorenzo, thanks for sharing that blog post. I didnât know about that, though I know about many Anthropic foundersâ previous affiliations with EA.
This is a slight update, but not enough to change my mind in the opposite direction. I already knew that Anthropic founders had a previous relationship to EA, and I donât doubt that they have donated, maybe something on the order of 10% of their income to global health before Anthropic. I know Daniela is married to Holden. I know many Anthropic founders and staff are early signatories to the GWWC pledge. I know there was a group house, and I know that early on, Anthropic foundersâ reasons for leaving OpenAI were around AI safety.
That said, my overall point still stands. They have greatly distanced themselves from EA and havenât said anything public about it in years, apart from pretending they didnât know what it was and other strange statements. Most of all, the base rate of sticking to a pledge like this is very low.
$1B is a very low number over 4-5 years, given their wealth and how much it could grow. Iâd also be interested in any donations they have made privately in the last few years (remember, they still earn decent salaries and, above all, could liquidate some stock).
I would bet that Dario Amodei makes <$1B in donations before June 2027, self-reported (money has to move, not just say some shiboleth about donating the money in the future) at 50â50 odds. Any 501(c)(3) would count.
Edit: Sorry, one more thing. I know many Anthropic employees and know about the donation match. I think many employees at Anthropic who intend to, and I believe will, donate significant amounts to charity over the next few years. Some have already started. I salute them, believe their intentions, and admire them. I merely think we have to go âbottom upâ in counting these donations as opposed to âtop-down,â where we assess a person and their intentions and what they will give to.
Thanks!
Not sure how much it matters, but the blog post mentions $10,000 to GiveWell alone, which was likely significantly more than 10% of a graduate studentâs income.
Yeah I agree, for what itâs worth I would expect (with low confidence) theyâll donate significantly more. But in general, for most planning, it doesnât matter how much they give in relative terms but in absolute terms.
A larger update for me was looking at GiveWellâs public board meeting records, in particular Daniela Amodei is the person evaluating GiveWellâs CEO, and seems an active board member here
Something interesting/âunique about Anthropicâs situation is that all 7 cofounders are now likely worth >$10B, so even if Dario doesnât donate much thereâs still a good chance others do (but obviously theyâre correlated.)
Personally, Iâm most uncertain about whether theyâll end up donating significantly to improve the welfare of biological beings vs focusing on digital beings. I expect them to take machine welfare quite seriously and increasingly so, and that to be something that markets and other funders wonât care as much about.
I think itâs also possible that they end up donating after 2027, timing donations around a potential critical transition period, and of course they have strong incentives to focus most of their capital to on winning the race.