I agree with these comments, and think the first oneāāIf you havenāt spent time on calibration training...āāmakes especially useful points.
Readers of this thread may also be interesting in a previous post of mine on Potential downsides of using explicit probabilities. (Though be warned that the post is less concise and well-structured than Iād aim for nowadays.) I ultimately conclude that post by saying:
There are some real downsides that can occur in practice when actual humans use explicit probabilities (or explicit probabilistic models, or maximising expected utility)
But some downsides that have been suggested (particularly causing overconfidence and understating the value of information) might actually be more pronounced for approaches other than using explicit probabilities
Some downsides (particularly relating to the optimizerās curse, anchoring, and reputational issues) may be more pronounced when the probabilities one has (or could have) are less trustworthy
Other downsides (particularly excluding oneās intuitive knowledge) may be more pronounced when the probabilities one has (or could have) are more trustworthy
Only one downside (reputational issues) seems to provide any argument for even acting as if thereās a binary risk-uncertainty distinction
And even in that case the argument is quite unclear, and wouldnāt suggest we should use the idea of such a distinction inour own thinking
(That quote and post is obviously is somewhat tangential to this thread, but also somewhat relevant. I lightly edited that quote to make it make more sense of of context.)
I agree with these comments, and think the first oneāāIf you havenāt spent time on calibration training...āāmakes especially useful points.
Readers of this thread may also be interesting in a previous post of mine on Potential downsides of using explicit probabilities. (Though be warned that the post is less concise and well-structured than Iād aim for nowadays.) I ultimately conclude that post by saying:
(That quote and post is obviously is somewhat tangential to this thread, but also somewhat relevant. I lightly edited that quote to make it make more sense of of context.)