(My best guess is that the average EA defers too much rather than too little. This and other comments on deference is to address specific points made, rather than to push any particular general takes).
Maybe that’s because startups are a more heavy-tailed domain than altruism, and one where conformity is more harmful
I think this is part of the reason. A plausibly bigger reason is that VC funding can’t result in heavy left-tails. Or rather, left-tails in VC funding are very rarely internalized. Concretely, if you pick your favorite example of “terrible startup for the future of sentient beings,” the VCs in question very rarely get in trouble, and approximately never get punished proportional to the counterfactual harm of their investments. VC funding can be negative for the VC beyond the opportunity cost of money (eg via reputational risk or whatever), but the punishment is quite low relative to the utility costs.
Obviously optimizing for increasing variance is a better deal when you clip the left tail, and optimizing for reducing variance is a better deal when you clip the right tail.
(I also independently think that heavy left tails in the utilitarian sense are probably less common in VC funding than in EA, but I think this is not necessary for my argument to go through).
(My best guess is that the average EA defers too much rather than too little. This and other comments on deference is to address specific points made, rather than to push any particular general takes).
I think this is part of the reason. A plausibly bigger reason is that VC funding can’t result in heavy left-tails. Or rather, left-tails in VC funding are very rarely internalized. Concretely, if you pick your favorite example of “terrible startup for the future of sentient beings,” the VCs in question very rarely get in trouble, and approximately never get punished proportional to the counterfactual harm of their investments. VC funding can be negative for the VC beyond the opportunity cost of money (eg via reputational risk or whatever), but the punishment is quite low relative to the utility costs.
Obviously optimizing for increasing variance is a better deal when you clip the left tail, and optimizing for reducing variance is a better deal when you clip the right tail.
(I also independently think that heavy left tails in the utilitarian sense are probably less common in VC funding than in EA, but I think this is not necessary for my argument to go through).
Good point, I agree this weakens my argument.