I may be doomed on making EA impact if I decide not to study in dentistry but solely major in CS. Wish someone can tell me why I’m wrong.
Warning: A somewhat depressing context.
I live in Taiwan, where there are very few people involved in EA. My career goal is to reduce AI risks (especially suffering risks), and I am currently deciding between two options: double majoring in CS and dentistry (takes 8 years), or majoring only in CS (4 years).
Although most EAs I have talked with suggest majoring solely in CS, I worry that in a probable scenario I might not make any significant impact if I don’t study dentistry. I would like to discuss this with more people in EA, but about 90% of the time I do not receive replies to my emails.
What if the AGI timeline is slow and AGI arrives 40 years later? In that case, AI might reduce the average salary of CS majors . In my (uncertain) estimation, CS graduates might earn only about half the lifetime income of dentists in pre-AGI era.
If I turn out to be mediocre rather than a top-10% talent, I may be doomed. It seems difficult to receive EA funding without exceptional talent, and according to the fat-tailed distribution described by 80,000 Hours (see the picture below), an average talented person working in AI safety outside EA organizations may not make a significant impact. It also seems possible that only the top 10% in CS will earn salaries comparable to those today and can do earn to give.
Therefore, if I am an average person, I might be unable to both contribute directly and earn to give (unless I become a dentist). Perhaps I should double major in dentistry as a backup plan for earning to give. But if I study for 8 years, by the time I graduate, AGI might already have arrived and I might still fail to make an impact. It feels like I may be doomed whichever path I choose.
I rarely feel that other EAs share these worries, and I wonder why. But it seems I may never know, because very few EAs seems to have time to discuss this with me.
Finally, I’m happy to hear any critique about my thoughts. Especially if you feel I think of CS major path too pessimisticly.
(Update: Without EA, Personally I don’t favor either side of dentistry or CS)
It seems like you’re not saving much time by doing the double degree, compared to two single degrees. Why not do a single degree in CS and then retrain if and only if the market goes south?
Also… EA aside, what do you want to do? If you really like dentistry and think you’ll do well in it, but coding makes you miserable, then dentistry is probably the right choice for you. For any of this “lifetime contribution” considerations to matter, the choice has to be one that you can sustain.
Thanks for your replying very much.
I’ve updated, without EA, personally I don’t prefer dentistry more than CS. The reason I’m thinking about pursuing dentistry is only for earn to give.
And then first solely majoe in CS, then re-enter dentistry: The problem is after 10 years from now, It’s quite probable I can’t win the competition to go in dentistry school. At that time, the application progress may change a lot, and I may got worse on preparing exams. However, there’s one thing that won’t change: dental/medical schools are always veru competitive.
To be frank—I don’t think it is possible to be confident about the impacts of AI on the labour market. Markets are very weird and respond to technological improvements in unpredictable ways; tautologically, if you could accurately predict them, you’d be able to file a leveraged trade and become a billionaire very quickly (and if you disagree with me—put your money where your mouth is and make that trade 😜). It can be easy when you’re feeling unsure of yourself to look up to those around you who seem more confident, but I would be careful about doing so. (Besides, if AGI does come before you graduate, you may well have bigger problems).
On a personal, mental level, I would try to ignore anyone who tells you to put people on a probability distribution. While it may or may not be technically true, almost any situation where I or friends have done this (careers, dating, politics, IQ) creates such a damaging second-order effect on your mentality and approach to the world that it’s usually better to just ignore it (an infohazard, if you will). I can see some effects of this in your post and the way you’re talking about yourself.
80,000 Hours’ advice used to be (unsure if it still is) to study very broadly, to give yourself optionality. This is especially good advice if (you + 8 years) may regret one choice or another. Besides, if you take the dual degree (rather than both in sequence), you can always drop out of one if you become more sure of yourself down the track—indeed, this is part of why universities offer this kind of flexibility.
Hello huw: Thanks for your replying. Your point about that CS employing markets in unpredictable is true. (However, I think that dentistry would probably not be replaced before human-level AGI really came out).
I don’t think 80000 hours would advice me to study something like dentistry for an addition 4 years. 80000 hours did encourage us to learn broadly, but probably not learn 4 years deeply on some siklls that aren’t very transferable(like dentistry). Moreover, if AGI comes in 2035, by the time I graduate from 8 years dental school it’s already too late to have impact.
Maybe ignoring is better for mental health. But if I ignore it, then probably I’ll believe that I’ll make siginficant distribution in direct work and single major in CS(since it saves 4 years). And then in reality my impact may be neglilible compared to donate as a dentist if I’m not talented enough.
If anyone would like to discuss privately, welcome to DM me or mail jackchang110@gmail.com