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Con­se­quences of AI timelines

TagLast edit: Sep 9, 2024, 2:58 PM by Sarah Cheng

When human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) is a consideration for both AI risk interventions and other interventions. For example, one’s AI timelines affect how much to discount interventions that have a delayed effect.

Related entries

AI forecasting | AI risk | Temporal discounting |

Whether you should do a PhD doesn’t de­pend much on timelines.

alex lawsenMar 22, 2023, 12:25 PM
67 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Calcu­lat­ing how much small donors funge with money that will never be spent

Tristan CookJan 16, 2023, 7:54 PM
34 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Timelines are short, p(doom) is high: a global stop to fron­tier AI de­vel­op­ment un­til x-safety con­sen­sus is our only rea­son­able hope

Greg_ColbournOct 12, 2023, 11:24 AM
73 points
85 comments9 min readEA link

In­stead of tech­ni­cal re­search, more peo­ple should fo­cus on buy­ing time

AkashNov 5, 2022, 8:43 PM
107 points
31 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

eliflandSep 14, 2022, 11:56 PM
47 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Scott Alexan­der re­acts to OpenAI’s lat­est post

AkashMar 11, 2023, 10:24 PM
105 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Fo­cus­ing your im­pact on short vs long TAI timelines

kuhanjSep 30, 2023, 7:23 PM
44 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Neart­er­mists should con­sider AGI timelines in their spend­ing decisions

Tristan CookJul 26, 2022, 5:01 PM
68 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

Some of My Cur­rent Im­pres­sions En­ter­ing AI Safety

PhibMar 28, 2023, 5:18 AM
5 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

EA and AI Safety Schism: AGI, the last tech hu­mans will (soon*) build

PhibMay 15, 2023, 2:05 AM
6 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

CEA Should In­vest in Helping Altru­ists Nav­i­gate Ad­vanced AI

Chris LeongMay 14, 2023, 2:52 PM
4 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Is there any work on cause pri­ori­ti­za­tion that takes into ac­count timelines be­ing wor­ld­view-de­pen­dent?

Chris LeongOct 31, 2023, 2:25 AM
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Ori­ent­ing to 3 year AGI timelines

NikolaDec 22, 2024, 11:07 PM
124 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

Ex­perts’ AI timelines are longer than you have been told?

Vasco Grilo🔸Jan 9, 2025, 5:30 PM
30 points
11 comments3 min readEA link
(bayes.net)

GiveWell should use shorter TAI timelines

OscarD🔸Oct 27, 2022, 6:59 AM
52 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Per­sonal AI Planning

Jeff Kaufman 🔸Nov 10, 2024, 2:10 PM
43 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Timelines in Gover­nance: Differ­ent Strate­gies for Differ­ent Timeframes

simeon_cDec 19, 2022, 9:31 PM
110 points
19 comments1 min readEA link

How im­por­tant are ac­cu­rate AI timelines for the op­ti­mal spend­ing sched­ule on AI risk in­ter­ven­tions?

Tristan CookDec 16, 2022, 4:05 PM
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

The op­ti­mal timing of spend­ing on AGI safety work; why we should prob­a­bly be spend­ing more now

Tristan CookOct 24, 2022, 5:42 PM
92 points
12 comments36 min readEA link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlodNov 7, 2020, 12:45 PM
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlodNov 28, 2020, 2:31 PM
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Why AGI Timeline Re­search/​Dis­course Might Be Overrated

Miles_BrundageJul 3, 2022, 8:04 AM
122 points
28 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] How does AI progress af­fect other EA cause ar­eas?

Luis Mota FreitasJun 9, 2023, 12:43 PM
95 points
13 comments1 min readEA link
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