In addition to the fact that representatives aren’t senators, looking to the distant past and other districts (not to mention total number of officials rather than number of elections won) is a bad way to predict elections. Based on recent elections, good election handicappers rate this seat Likely Democratic; if Carrick wins the primary, he will likely win the general election.
In addition to the fact that representatives aren’t senators, looking to the distant past and other districts (not to mention total number of officials rather than number of elections won) is a bad way to predict elections. Based on recent elections, good election handicappers rate this seat Likely Democratic; if Carrick wins the primary, he will likely win the general election.
I’m wasn’t aiming for a 5-star probability, only a rough estimate. For the record, I corrected that before you made your comment.