I think Carrick has a decent shot, since he is running for a new seat (no incumbent), grew up in the district, has a compelling personal narrative (escaping poverty and then choosing a life of service), and doesn’t seem to be facing any extremely strong competitors. But, because he’s new to Oregon politics, he does need to raise a lot of money to attract the attention and support of local stakeholders and supporters.
Thanks for the question, JP, it’s always good to define those probabilities. I personally estimate his chance of winning to at least 30% (and going to 50%) due to Carrick’s fit, the unusually good fundraising, and the excellent campaign team. This is probably not one for people who want a definite win—it’s so much at play. However, I am very enthusiastic about Carrick’s potential for a very large impact and think it’s worth the shot.
By all accounts, Carrick is also tall, attractive, and charismatic, as well as US-born and other relevant demographic factors. I’d personally be substantially lower on his probability of winning otherwise.
I think Carrick has a decent shot, since he is running for a new seat (no incumbent), grew up in the district, has a compelling personal narrative (escaping poverty and then choosing a life of service), and doesn’t seem to be facing any extremely strong competitors. But, because he’s new to Oregon politics, he does need to raise a lot of money to attract the attention and support of local stakeholders and supporters.
We should probably quantify “decent”. >10%? >50?
Thanks for the question, JP, it’s always good to define those probabilities. I personally estimate his chance of winning to at least 30% (and going to 50%) due to Carrick’s fit, the unusually good fundraising, and the excellent campaign team. This is probably not one for people who want a definite win—it’s so much at play. However, I am very enthusiastic about Carrick’s potential for a very large impact and think it’s worth the shot.
By all accounts, Carrick is also tall, attractive, and charismatic, as well as US-born and other relevant demographic factors. I’d personally be substantially lower on his probability of winning otherwise.