One reason to believe otherwise is because you think existential GCBRs will looks so radically different that any broader biosecurity preparatory work won’t be useful.
This was basically going to be my response—but to expand on it, in a slightly different direction, I would say that, although maybe we shouldn’t be more concerned about biorisk, young EAs who are interested in biorisk should update in favor of pursuing a career in/getting involved with biorisk. My two reasons for this are:
1) There will likely be more opportunities in biorisk (in particular around pandemic preparedness) in the near-future.
2) EAs will still be unusually invested in lower-probability, higher-risk problems than non-EAs (like GCBRs).
(1) means talented EAs will have more access to potentially high-impact career options in this area, and (2) means EAs may have a higher counterfactual impact than non-EAs by getting involved.
One reason to believe otherwise is because you think existential GCBRs will looks so radically different that any broader biosecurity preparatory work won’t be useful.
This was basically going to be my response—but to expand on it, in a slightly different direction, I would say that, although maybe we shouldn’t be more concerned about biorisk, young EAs who are interested in biorisk should update in favor of pursuing a career in/getting involved with biorisk. My two reasons for this are:
1) There will likely be more opportunities in biorisk (in particular around pandemic preparedness) in the near-future.
2) EAs will still be unusually invested in lower-probability, higher-risk problems than non-EAs (like GCBRs).
(1) means talented EAs will have more access to potentially high-impact career options in this area, and (2) means EAs may have a higher counterfactual impact than non-EAs by getting involved.