On the one hand, I think we’ve seen enough evidence that government, etc., institutions are surprisingly inadequate at even dealing with a natural pandemic that by all accounts have substantially less concerning properties than a severe bio-engineered pandemic.
On the other hand, a classical reason given for being less concerned about biorisk historically is that we’ll see “warning shots” before the real thing (in a way that we’re less likely to see with, eg, AI). In a way, COVID-19 is one such “warning shot.” So I expect governments, large non-EA donors, public health people and the current generation of smart young people, etc., to all make the update to be much more concerned about pandemics and institutional resilience to them.
On balance, I weakly think current events should lead us to be less concerned about future biorisk. What do you guys think?