OpenPhilanthropy’s “hits based giving” approach seems like it doesn’t fall prey to your argument, because they are willing to ignore the “Don’t Prevent Impossible Harms” constraint.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think this is true (unless I’m misinterpreting!). Preferring low-probability, high-expected value gambles doesn’t require preferring gambles with probability 0 of success.
Well, what you are saying is true if you are certain that they are 0 probability. But not if you are willing to take bets which, in hindsight, you will realize had 0 probability of occurring.
Ah, I think we’ve got different notions of probability in mind: the subjective credence of the agent (OpenPhil grantmakers) versus something like the objective chances of the thing actually happening, irrespective of anyone’s beliefs.
something like the objective chances of the thing actually happening, irrespective of anyone’s beliefs
Yeah, I think that if you stare at the second one, it doesn’t seem that decision relevant. E.g., a coin which is either heads or tails is 100% heads with 50% probability and 100% tails with 50% probability.
And if some important decision depended on whether it was heads or tails you might not wait and find out.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think this is true (unless I’m misinterpreting!). Preferring low-probability, high-expected value gambles doesn’t require preferring gambles with probability 0 of success.
Well, what you are saying is true if you are certain that they are 0 probability. But not if you are willing to take bets which, in hindsight, you will realize had 0 probability of occurring.
Ah, I think we’ve got different notions of probability in mind: the subjective credence of the agent (OpenPhil grantmakers) versus something like the objective chances of the thing actually happening, irrespective of anyone’s beliefs.
Yeah, I think that if you stare at the second one, it doesn’t seem that decision relevant. E.g., a coin which is either heads or tails is 100% heads with 50% probability and 100% tails with 50% probability.
And if some important decision depended on whether it was heads or tails you might not wait and find out.