Hi Siebe, yes, all the scenarios of this report assume positive value at all times. I don’t think it’s certain that this will happen which is why the concluding remarks mention “investigating value trajectories that feature negative value” as a possible extension. So, yes, I completely agree this is something to look into in more depth.
I don’t have the spare brain power to dig into this, but are you assuming that all possible trajectories have positive value?
Hi Siebe, yes, all the scenarios of this report assume positive value at all times. I don’t think it’s certain that this will happen which is why the concluding remarks mention “investigating value trajectories that feature negative value” as a possible extension. So, yes, I completely agree this is something to look into in more depth.
Right yeah, that makes sense.
I actually asked the same question as this research in my 2019 MA philosophy thesis and came to the informal conclusion that actions that moral disagreement about what is valuable + empirical uncertainty make it all very difficult: http://www.sieberozendal.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Rozendal-S.T.-2019-Uncertainty-About-the-Expected-Moral-Value-of-the-Long-Term-Future.-MA-Thesis.pdf
You might find it interesting, though it’s much less formally sophisticated than your work :)