In general, even assigning a low but non-tiny probability to low long run risks can allow huge expected values.
See also Tarsney’s The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism
https://philarchive.org/rec/TARTEC-2
which is basically the cubic model here, with consistent per period risk rate over time, but allowing uncertainty over the rate.
You’re right that the Tarsney paper was an important driver in bringing cubic to this framework. That’s why it’s a key source in the value cases summary. Modelling uncertainty is an excellent next step for various scenarios.
Thanks very much for the link to David’s response. I hadn’t seen that!
Good to have the link to Carl’s thread, it’ll be valuable to run these models and get some visualisations with that 1 in a million estimate too!
It also seems worth mentioning grabby alien models, which, from my understanding, are consistent with a high probability of eventually encountering aliens. But again, we might not have near-certainty in such models or eventually encountering aliens. And I don’t know what kind of timeline this would happen on according to grabby alien models; I haven’t looked much into them.
(Commenting on mobile, so excuse the link formatting.)
See also this comment and thread by Carl Shulman: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zLZMsthcqfmv5J6Ev/the-discount-rate-is-not-zero?commentId=Nr35E6sTfn9cPxrwQ
Including his estimate (guess?) of 1 in a million risk per century in the long run:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zLZMsthcqfmv5J6Ev/the-discount-rate-is-not-zero?commentId=GzhapzRs7no3GAGF3
In general, even assigning a low but non-tiny probability to low long run risks can allow huge expected values.
See also Tarsney’s The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism https://philarchive.org/rec/TARTEC-2 which is basically the cubic model here, with consistent per period risk rate over time, but allowing uncertainty over the rate.
Thorstad has recently responded to Tarsney’s model, by the way: https://ineffectivealtruismblog.com/2023/09/22/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-4-optimistic-population-dynamics/
Good to hear from you Michael! Some thoughts:
You’re right that the Tarsney paper was an important driver in bringing cubic to this framework. That’s why it’s a key source in the value cases summary. Modelling uncertainty is an excellent next step for various scenarios.
Thanks very much for the link to David’s response. I hadn’t seen that!
Good to have the link to Carl’s thread, it’ll be valuable to run these models and get some visualisations with that 1 in a million estimate too!
It also seems worth mentioning grabby alien models, which, from my understanding, are consistent with a high probability of eventually encountering aliens. But again, we might not have near-certainty in such models or eventually encountering aliens. And I don’t know what kind of timeline this would happen on according to grabby alien models; I haven’t looked much into them.