Linch comments on What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?

Linch 7 Aug 2020 20:36 UTC
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With 50% probability, things will last twice as long as they already have.
In my head, I map this very similarly to the German tank problem. I agree that it’s a very useful prior!
- NunoSempere 25 Aug 2020 20:47 UTC
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  Yes, I think that this corresponds to the German tank problem after you see the first tank.