Thanks for elaborating—I haven’t thought much about the bio comparison and political spending things but on funding a preferred lab/compute stuff, I agree that could be more sensitive to timelines than the AI policy things I mentioned.
FWIW I don’t think it’s as sensitive to timelines as it may first appear (doing something like that could still make sense even with longer timelines given the potential value in shaping norms, policies, public attitudes on AI, etc., particularly if one expects sub-AGI progress to help replenish EA coffers, and if such an idea were misguided I think it’d probably be for non-timeline-related reasons like accelerating competition or speeding things up too much even for a favored lab to handle).
But if I were rewriting I’d probably mention it as a prominent counterexample justifying some further work along with some of the alignment agenda stuff mentioned below.
Oh, one more thing: AI timelines put a discount on other interventions. Developing a technology that will take 30 years to have its effect is less than half as important if your median AGI timeline is 20 years.
Thanks for elaborating—I haven’t thought much about the bio comparison and political spending things but on funding a preferred lab/compute stuff, I agree that could be more sensitive to timelines than the AI policy things I mentioned.
FWIW I don’t think it’s as sensitive to timelines as it may first appear (doing something like that could still make sense even with longer timelines given the potential value in shaping norms, policies, public attitudes on AI, etc., particularly if one expects sub-AGI progress to help replenish EA coffers, and if such an idea were misguided I think it’d probably be for non-timeline-related reasons like accelerating competition or speeding things up too much even for a favored lab to handle).
But if I were rewriting I’d probably mention it as a prominent counterexample justifying some further work along with some of the alignment agenda stuff mentioned below.
Oh, one more thing: AI timelines put a discount on other interventions. Developing a technology that will take 30 years to have its effect is less than half as important if your median AGI timeline is 20 years.